Artificial intelligence capital is shifting to physical infrastructure
Data centers accounted for more than one-fifth of the global value of new greenfield projects in 2025, while announced investments exceeded $270 billion. Capital that was primarily tied to software is taking on a physical form in buildings and equipment, while cooling is becoming as important as computing power.
When capacity is used for online campaigns, a portfolio of partners can include e-commerce and names like 1xBet in sports betting, with loads varying by schedule. Billions can be announced quickly. Construction and commissioning require a different pace.
Over $270 billion shifts from software to construction
UNCTAD calculated that data centers accounted for more than 20% of the value of greenfield projects announced worldwide for 2025. Put simply, more than one in every five dollars announced for new projects went to this category.
A greenfield project starts from scratch. Capital is not used to simply expand an existing structure, but to create new capacity. This can include the building and computer equipment. Cooling systems add another layer of investment.
The $270 billion figure measures the value of announced projects, not necessarily the amount spent in a single year. The distinction is crucial. An announcement indicates the project’s intent and size, while actual capacity only becomes apparent once the equipment is installed and the center goes into operation.
Budgets are growing, but not every dollar plays the same role.
Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $180–190 billion to $195–205 billion. The change is mainly related to capacity acceleration. This mid-year adjustment indicates that demand for infrastructure is outpacing earlier plans.
Other companies have also presented large budgets, but the figures are not entirely comparable. Some cover a full year. Others include investments that extend beyond data centers.
| Company | Published figure | What does it represent? |
| Alphabet | 195–205 billion dollars | Capital expenditure forecast for 2026 |
| Amazon | About 200 billion dollars | The overall capital plan for 2026, primarily related to AI. |
| Meta | 130–145 billion dollars | Annual guidance on capital expenditures |
| Microsoft | 41 billion dollars | Capital expenditures in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 |
Microsoft clarified that approximately two-thirds of the quarterly amount went toward shorter-lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs. This shifts the focus from the building to the devices within it. A data center may be physically ready, but its computing value depends on what’s installed on the racks.
Amazon presented artificial intelligence as the primary destination of its plan, without limiting the entire sum to data centers. Meta, meanwhile, spent $31.08 billion in the second quarter alone. The scale is clear, but measuring delivered capacity remains more meaningful than comparing budgets in isolation.
Sports betting brings traffic with short peaks.
A widely watched match can concentrate online activity into a short window. For betting platforms—including regional operators in growing markets like Albania—traffic spikes before kickoff and during the game. Media partners work to the same schedule when coordinating campaigns around the broadcast.
This model doesn’t just require storage space. Processing must track the score and market updates almost in real time. A two-hour peak may use only a fraction of the permanent capacity, but it makes clear why equipment is installed before the traffic arrives.
Sports betting represents a use case among many online services. From an investment perspective, what matters is the infrastructure’s ability to handle rapid volume changes without interrupting processing.
The cold is becoming an asset worth billions.
On August 31, 2026, SLB announced the agreement to acquire Kelvion, a manufacturer of heat-exchange and cooling equipment. The value includes $3.4 billion in cash and about $700 million in assumed debt, bringing the total to $4.1 billion.
The deal isn’t just about data centers, as Kelvion’s technology is used in more than one industry. However, the timing is significant. The more processors that are placed in a data center, the more heat needs to be removed. Thus, a technical limitation is taking on direct weight in the evaluation of suppliers.
The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027. Until then, the most useful metric will be the portion of 2026 budgets that translates into installed, ready-to-use capacity.
