December Weather Didn’t Warm Housing Starts

Housing Starts

THUNDER BAY – December’s warm weather didn’t have a warming effect on local housing starts in Thunder Bay.

Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 293 units in December, down from 322 units in November according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The trend’s downward movement in December is a departure from the upward movement from the past several months. The decline was broad-based as starts for all housing types were down. Declining employment and a resale market moving into balance caused slowing in the last few months of 2015,” concluded Warren Philp, CMHC Market Analyst for the Thunder Bay CMA.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 134 units in December down from 211 units in November. The December drop represents the third consecutive decline in the monthly SAAR.

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