Avi Lewis and the NDP: Signs of Recovery, but Is Staying Outside Parliament a Mistake?
THUNDER BAY — NEWS ANALYSIS — Six months after Avi Lewis became federal New Democratic Party leader, the party has shown that it can recover support in selected ridings. What it has not yet demonstrated is a sustained national comeback—or that rebuilding outside Parliament is delivering enough to justify keeping its leader away from the Commons.
Polling presents a mixed picture. Two Toronto by-elections produced stronger NDP vote shares, but the party won none of the six federal contests examined since Lewis took over.
His decision to prioritize organizing over immediately seeking a seat also raises a familiar question: is Lewis approaching the same strategic difficulty that confronted Jagmeet Singh when he led the party from outside Parliament?
A Strong Mandate to Rebuild a Weakened Party
Lewis won the leadership on March 29, 2026, receiving 39,734 votes, approximately 56 per cent, on the first ballot. The party reported 100,542 eligible leadership electors and turnout of 70.6 per cent. That gave him a decisive mandate among participating members.
The challenge beyond the party membership was considerably larger.
The NDP had received 6.3 per cent of the national vote and seven seats in the 2025 election, losing official party status. By the leadership convention, Lori Idlout’s move to the Liberals had reduced the caucus to six. Party officials also reported approximately $13 million in debt at the convention. These difficulties predated Lewis’s leadership.
Lewis initially chose outreach over immediately seeking a Commons seat. His campaign emphasized public grocery and telecommunications options, renewable-energy investment and opposition to new fossil-fuel projects.
A Clearer Political Message, but Internal Tensions
Under Lewis, the federal NDP is positioning itself as a more forceful alternative to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approach to investment, affordability and public services.
In September, the party identified food and housing costs, Canadian industry, public services and jobs as its priorities. It also described meetings with unions, tenant organizers, food banks and community organizations.
Lewis has challenged the government’s proposed private investment in major airports, arguing it would benefit investors at the expense of travellers and workers. Those are the NDP’s arguments about the proposal, rather than established outcomes.
His direction has also exposed disagreements within the broader New Democratic movement. Alberta’s Naheed Nenshi and Saskatchewan’s Carla Beck challenged his energy policies at the beginning of his tenure. Lewis defended his mandate while expressing willingness to talk.
That dispute illustrates a lasting challenge for the party: connecting climate-focused voters with workers and communities whose livelihoods depend on resource development.
Have the New Democrats Grown in the Polls?
Some polling shows recovery, but the evidence does not establish a consistent national surge.
Comparisons within the same polling organization are more useful than treating every survey as part of one continuous trend.
| Pollster | Earlier reading | Later reading | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos | Approximately 10%, published March 10, before Lewis became leader | 13.6%, published July 21; 11.0%, tracking ending Sept. 25 | Summer improvement followed by a retreat |
| Léger | 8%, published Aug. 10 | 6%, surveyed Sept. 5–7 | A two-point decline between surveys |
| Liaison Strategies | 15%, published Sept. 21 | 15%, published Sept. 28 | Support held steady across the two releases |
These are selected readings, not a calculated polling average.
Nanos’s late-September result was substantially above the NDP’s 2025 election share, but only modestly above its rounded pre-leadership March reading. Recovery from an election low is therefore not automatically evidence of a large Lewis-driven gain.
The differences between pollsters also matter. Léger’s September survey used an online panel of 1,538 adults. Liaison interviewed 1,526 Canadians by automated telephone from Sept. 13–26, reporting a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Nanos uses a four-week rolling telephone sample, so successive weekly releases share many respondents.
It would be misleading to describe Léger’s six per cent and Liaison’s 15 per cent as evidence that the NDP suddenly gained nine points during September.
Lewis Is Better Known, but Opinions Are Divided
Liaison’s March survey recorded 20 per cent favourable and 14 per cent unfavourable views of Lewis. By late September, those figures were 31 per cent favourable and 30 per cent unfavourable.
Both positive and negative opinions increased. Lewis became better defined without building an equally clear advantage in public sentiment. In September, 27 per cent remained unsure and 12 per cent were unfamiliar with him.
Abacus Data’s July assessment provided another caution. The proportion of Canadians who would consider voting NDP stood at 34 per cent, compared with 35 per cent in early April.
That measures potential openness to the party, rather than committed support. It suggested Lewis had not significantly expanded the NDP’s potential audience during his first three months.
Six By-Elections, No NDP Victories
Election results provide a firmer measure than opinion polls, although individual ridings cannot represent the entire country.
| Date | Riding | NDP candidate | NDP votes | Vote share | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | University–Rosedale | Serena Purdy | 5,870 | 18.9% | Second |
| April 13 | Scarborough Southwest | Fatima Shaban | 1,714 | 5.9% | Third |
| April 13 | Terrebonne | Maxime Beaudoin | 248 | 0.5% | Fourth |
| Aug. 31 | Beaches–East York | Shannon Devine | 8,496 | 25.6% | Second |
| Aug. 31 | North Vancouver–Capilano | Stephen Tweedale | 1,242 | 3.1% | Fourth |
| Aug. 31 | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | Raphaël Émond | 577 | 1.8% | Fourth |
All six contests were won by Liberals. Figures are from Elections Canada’s validated returns.
The April elections occurred just 15 days after Lewis became leader, making them an especially limited test of his leadership.
Beaches–East York Shows Genuine Progress
Shannon Devine’s August performance offers the strongest evidence of rebuilding.
She received 4,027 votes and 6.9 per cent in the 2025 election. In the by-election, she earned 8,496 votes and 25.6 per cent.
That is an increase of approximately 18.7 percentage points and 4,469 votes. Her vote count more than doubled even though the riding’s total valid ballots fell from 58,755 to 33,137. The improvement was more than a mathematical effect of other voters staying home.
Lewis campaigned with Devine, including on concerns about Toronto’s waterfront and potential airport expansion. The campaign connected a local issue with environmental policy and affordability.
However, Liberal winner Tanveer Shahnawaz received 55.8 per cent, finishing 30.2 percentage points ahead. The NDP recovered significantly, but did not make the race close.
Lewis called the result evidence of a “growing appetite for a progressive alternative.” The party also reported new volunteers and stronger organizing. Those organizational claims come from the NDP; Elections Canada’s results independently confirm the increase in votes.
University–Rosedale Tells a Different Story
Serena Purdy’s share rose from 9.9 per cent in 2025 to 18.9 per cent in April.
Her actual vote count, however, declined from 6,168 to 5,870 as participation fell. The party improved its relative position without receiving more ballots than in the general election.
The other August contests showed little evidence of a wider breakthrough. The NDP finished fourth in North Vancouver–Capilano and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord. In the latter, its share was 1.8 per cent, compared with 1.9 per cent in 2025.
These results support a measured conclusion: Lewis’s NDP has demonstrated that it can recover in particular communities. It has not demonstrated that those gains extend broadly across Canada.
Is Lewis Repeating Jagmeet Singh’s Delay?
The comparison is reasonable, but the timelines are different.
| Leader | Leadership victory | Route toward a Commons seat |
|---|---|---|
| Jagmeet Singh | Oct. 1, 2017 | Announced his Burnaby South candidacy Aug. 8, 2018; won Feb. 25, 2019 |
| Avi Lewis | March 29, 2026 | Initially prioritized rebuilding; continued to emphasize election readiness over obtaining his own seat in August |
Singh spent almost 17 months as federal leader before winning a Commons seat. Lewis has been leader for approximately six months.
Their reasoning has similarities. Singh undertook a national introductory tour before committing to Burnaby South. Lewis has emphasized meeting Canadians and rebuilding the party’s organization.
Both approaches have a purpose. The question is how long the benefits justify remaining outside Parliament.
The Cost of Remaining Outside the Commons
From a strategic perspective, Lewis faces three risks.
First, he cannot personally question ministers, debate legislation or vote in the Commons. Other MPs must deliver the party’s parliamentary response.
Second, parliamentary exchanges offer opportunities to demonstrate preparation, judgment and command of public policy. Community meetings and media appearances provide different opportunities, but do not replace that experience.
Third, an open-ended delay can become a recurring distraction. Questions about when the leader will run can compete with the policy message he wants voters to hear.
These are potential costs, not proof that his absence is causing weak polling.
Winning a seat would also not automatically restore official party status. Lewis’s personal parliamentary presence and the party’s broader seat deficit are separate questions.
Why Rushing Into Any Available Riding Would Be Risky
There is a legitimate case for choosing carefully.
A party rebuilding after a major defeat must consider where its leader can credibly run and whether it has the resources to mount a competitive campaign. Losing a by-election could make the recovery more difficult.
The NDP’s 3.1 per cent in North Vancouver–Capilano illustrates why an available vacancy is not necessarily a good opportunity. It does not establish what Lewis himself would have received.
Singh’s experience also requires fairness. He eventually won Burnaby South, and the period after he committed to running depended partly on the timing of the by-election call. Delaying a candidacy and waiting for an election date are different decisions. His later electoral difficulties cannot reasonably be attributed to his initial parliamentary absence alone.
What Can Be Attributed to Lewis?
Lewis has supplied a clearer message and participated in campaigns. The available evidence does not isolate how many votes his leadership personally produced.
Candidates, volunteers, local issues, departing incumbents and turnout all affect by-election results. Government decisions can also create opportunities independently of an opposition leader.
Angus Reid’s July research found that 15 per cent of 2025 Liberal voters then intended to support the NDP, with climate concerns prominent among those switching. That suggests an opening for Lewis, but does not prove his leadership alone caused the movement.
The Test for Northwestern Ontario—and for Lewis
For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, the important question is whether the federal NDP can connect affordability and public services with credible plans for resource-sector jobs, transportation and Indigenous rights.
Toronto by-election results cannot answer that question. Provincial NDP performance should not be treated as a direct measure of Lewis’s federal leadership either.
After six months, it is fair to ask Lewis what measurable organizational progress justifies continuing outside Parliament, and what conditions would prompt him to seek a seat.
He has not yet repeated Singh’s prolonged absence. But he faces the same strategic dilemma: how to establish himself as a parliamentary alternative while remaining outside Parliament.
Lewis has evidence that rebuilding is possible. The next test is whether he can turn that recovery into competitive campaigns, additional seats and a clear parliamentary role of his own.
Research note: Assessment current to Oct. 4, 2026. Election figures use Elections Canada’s validated returns and published 2025 results. Percentage-point changes use rounded shares. Polls measure voting intentions, not election outcomes or proof of a leader’s personal effect.
