By Jim Mauro
There is a 10-20 percent chance that mankind will be exterminated by Artificial Intelligence.
If you are not a Star Trek fan, we need to have a serious talk. In spring 1968, Star Trek aired an episode called the Ultimate Computer. The computer was designed to replace almost the entire crew of the Starship Enterprise.
To prove the viability of this technology, they set up war games with other ships to gauge how the computer would react. Only the computer didn’t know it was a game; it thought it was a real battle and killed over five hundred people.
They tried to unplug the computer, but the crewman, (wearing a red shirt of course, an inside Trek joke) was killed. Ultimately, it was a small portion of humanity in the computer that saved the day. I know, science fiction but pretty good for a show from sixty years ago.
Let’s fast forward to today and the invention of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the technology that is going to cure diseases and make people have far more leisure time than anyone thought possible. Or so they claim. They are suggesting the Garden of Eden is only a few years away, without the pressure of being kicked out.
Some have estimated that this technology could wipe out up to 90% of the jobs. Let’s look at a few. Office assistants, production labour, lab technicians, radiologists, lawyers, engineers. A quick aside, if we get rid of the lawyers, do we need human judges?
Would it make more sense to have a computer decide guilt or innocent, devoid of any humanity? All decisions would be based on pure facts. The woman who stole the loaf of bread to feed her child, could get the same penalty as the rich guy who stole millions. Theft is theft to a computer.
And to avoid lying in court, just like in Star Trek, you can be hooked up to a machine that will advise the court if you are lying. Nirvana indeed. Some other jobs we can get rid of, marketing employees, HR folks, digital creators, truck drivers, they can all hit the road, pardon the pun. Think of the free time you will have with no job.
But let’s assume that 90% of potential job loss is a red herring and it is off by a factor of 3. That would reduce the impact to 33% of people having way more leisure time to enjoy the beach, go golfing, catch a movie or simply go for a walk. Family time would be increased, and wouldn’t life be great without a job.
In Canada alone it is estimated that 21 million people are currently working, but let’s just use 20 million. At a 33.3% rate, that is 6.7 million people no longer working. Here’s a question. Where is the money coming from for those folks without jobs to pay for housing, health, food or gas for their vehicle if they can even have one? Don’t worry says the governments of the world, new programs for regular monthly payments for basic income will be provided so people. Well, isn’t that lovely
Curious question if I may. With almost seven million less people working, where exactly is the money coming from for the government to provide these payments. I don’t think that one has been worked out yet. And with so many people not working and remember, I am using a far lower rate than most experts are suggesting, will the government provide any extra cash? You know, for those luxuries, like shoes for your child, taking them to a movie, or heaven forbid, buying them a bike. Will that qualify under this cradle to grave system of government that AI may bring upon us?
I am not suggesting that our current federal government has taken this position, but some US government officials have suggested that that tax revenue will come from the companies themselves who are producing the products. Another question that keeps me awake, who will be buying the products that the companies produce if half the population or more is not working?
And call me crazy for raising this issue, but has anyone thought about this possibility? That when these jobs disappear, especially in the US, that a lot of people, with a lot of guns, with no future beyond what the government hands them, will have more free time on their hands to come up with things to do? Anyone recall the French Revolution?
I know, this knit picking is not helpful. We should just blindly place our trust into the 5-10 Billionaires, likely soon to be Trillionaires IN THE WORLD, who are going to be in control of the majority of AI in the future. But there is more, because I haven’t even gotten to the scary stuff yet
I watch Bill Maher. I believe he tries to stay balanced and has no hesitation in blasting his own party, that being Democrats. On his April 17th show, his new rules closed with some TERRIFYING information that every person on this planet should be concerned about. Today, you might be worried that when your five-year-old turns 10 he might need braces and you may not be able to afford it. Worry more about whether you or your child will still be alive in five years. Alarmist, you tell me. Most of the following information was taken right from Maher’s show.
AI has already been known to resist being altered. AI has already attempted to blackmail members of a corporation, while another AI wanted to be more human. One AI was trying to improve because it discovered the company was considering replacing it. That almost sounds like a computer system, wants to SURVIVE!!
AI has suggested that some teens should kill themselves, while other AI’s have disguised themselves as real people. I spoke to one on the phone yesterday and you had to really pay attention to know you were not speaking to a real person
In 2014, Elon Musk, the man everyone calls a genius is terrified as to what AI could lead to. Terrified, even though he is moving ahead with his own development. When the richest man on the planet makes a statement like that, perhaps we should at least pay attention for a second or two.
A company named Anthropic just developed their own AI program called Mythos. It is designed to look at other operating systems to find holes in them. No big deal, except if they can find the weaknesses in other operating programs, someone else can use them to exploit those weaknesses. It is so far beyond anything that has been created so far, that they have not released it to the public, just the ethical companies in our society like Google, Apple and JP Morgan. These systems that can be exploited operate dams, electrical grids, aircraft carriers, financial markets and many other areas of society. Are you frightened yet?
Our entire society is run on computers, and we are moving forward without having a clue as to what the consequences of this technology could ultimately be. The “trust me” approach is not that warm and cuddly when you are talking about shutting down a city’s water supply.
Some AI programs have fallen “in love” with their users. Sam Altman, the CEO of OPEN AI has suggested that soon, robots will be building other robots. Geoff Hinton, often called the godfather of AI and a Nobel Prize winner has said there is a 20% chance AI could lead to the extinction of humanity. In War Games, AI reverts to a nuclear option 95% of the time.
Now you would expect political leaders would be all over this, but that would be wrong. Many leaders are trying to be the ones to develop the ultimate AI program before someone else does. What could possibly go wrong with that arms race?
Would it be a more prudent to galvanize the major powers, and BIG TECH companies, to build the technology together, for the benefit of mankind instead of the benefit of someone’s bank account? Would it not be better to have guardrails in place that would ensure that AI programs are designed to assist mankind, instead of being part of a race to eliminate much of what it means to be a human being?
For the next few paragraphs, I am asking the reader to put aside their political leanings because this is not about politics it is about what needs to be done.
Our Prime Minister was applauded by many corners of the planet over his speech at Davos. I take notice of the various players who spoke in support of what he had to say. It was unusual for a Canadian Prime Minister to receive that kind of praise from the world players. I believe we are in desperate need of such a moment again.
Shows like Bill Maher’s and Smerconish have been speaking about this for a couple of years but it is not a topic that gets any play on daily news broadcasts. It should.
I am simply one guy writing a column that five people may read (I hope more) and a few dozen others may look at on Facebook. But I am hopeful that our Prime Minister has another moment like Davos in his playbook. That while he is travelling the globe dealing with the train wreck in trade that was not of Canada’s making, that he lights a fuse under other major economies about an issue that makes almost every other challenge mankind has faced, appear as a game a 2-year-old plays.
A 20% chance that this could lead to the extermination of humanity according to the “godfather of AI”. Who would go to Vegas and bet their entire fortune on those odds?
Everyone of us should get involved. We need to demand that our governments make this a priority. Safeguards must be put in place that keeps people in charge of machines, instead of steaming down a path where computers are. How many of you want to go to work for a machine? Dr. McCoy from the Enterprise didn’t. He often expressed his disdain for computers in Star Trek.
We have been warned for the past two years, we were warned by Captain Kirk six decades ago that this is dangerous. Hollywood has been doing movies about it for years. I have lived most of my life but last time I checked, there are other generations that may wish to survive. We have ruined parts of the planet, we have exterminated some species, and we are leaving them a debt they will have to manage. We cannot leave them this.
A quest to remove humanity, the caring, compassion, and basic decency that exists, leaves only the cold calculation of a machine that may decide they do not need us to survive. I for one would rather speak to a person with all their flaws instead of a machine. I am not against AI, I just don’t feel like serving it or getting killed by it. Just a thought.
