Toronto’s Canada Day Weekend Forecast: Summer Heat, Fireworks & a Splash of Rain

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Toronto

A Warm, Humid Start Gives Way to a Classic Long Weekend Mix

Saturday: Muggy Mornings and Mixed Skies

Good morning, Toronto! As of 7:00 AM at Pearson International Airport, the temperature sits at 23.0°C, but thanks to high humidity at 91% and a dew point of 21.5°C, it already feels more like 32°C. The air is thick, sticky, and ready to launch us into a hot and hazy long weekend.

Winds are light out of the southwest at 9 km/h, and the barometric pressure is 101.2 kPa and falling, hinting at some unstable conditions early today. There’s a 40% chance of showers and a risk of thunderstorms this morning, but these should clear out by mid-morning.

By this afternoon, winds shift northwest at 20 km/h, and skies stay a mix of sun and cloud. Expect a high of 25°C, with a humidex of 32. The UV index is 9 — that’s very high, so sun protection is non-negotiable if you’re heading out for Canada Day festivities, waterfront strolls, or a quick ice cream run.

Tonight: Clear and Calm

This evening will be clear with fog patches developing after midnight, especially in low-lying or lake-adjacent areas. Winds settle down, becoming light, and the overnight low is a comfortable 15°C — ideal for cooling off the house or enjoying some patio time.

Sunday: Sunshine and Sizzle

Sunday brings a full day of sunshine once the morning fog lifts. It’ll be hot and humid, with a high of 28°C and a humidex pushing 33. Make sure your sunscreen is as ready as your Canada Day flag — the UV index holds at 9, so protect your skin while you soak up that sunshine.

Sunday night sees increasing cloud cover, with an overnight low of 20°C — still on the warm side.

Monday: Canada Day Eve Showers?

Monday, June 30, brings cloudy skies and a 60% chance of showers throughout the day, with a warm high of 30°C. There could be a rumble of thunder, so plan any outdoor events or BBQs with one eye on the radar.

Monday night remains cloudy, again with a 60% chance of showers, and another 20°C low. Not ideal, but not a washout.

Canada Day – July 1: Partly Cloudy, But Promising

Canada Day itself looks much more cooperative. Expect a mix of sun and cloud and a 40% chance of showers, mainly early in the day. The good news? The high is 29°C, it’ll feel like summer, and fireworks plans should be safe if you’re lucky.

Tuesday night clears out nicely with a low of 16°C — perfect for relaxing after the day’s festivities.

What to Wear: Dress Light, Pack Smart

It’s a sweaty one, folks. Think breathable fabrics, wide-brimmed hats, and water bottles you don’t leave home without. For Sunday and Monday, consider rain gear and umbrellas for outdoor events. And for Canada Day? Layers — just enough to peel off if the sun breaks out, or stay comfy under a cloudy breeze.

Toronto Weather Trivia

Did you know? Toronto’s hottest Canada Day on record was 36.7°C in 1966, during a heatwave that had city fountains working overtime. While we’re not reaching that mark this year, we’re getting a pretty classic sample of Toronto summer: hot, humid, and just unpredictable enough to keep things interesting.

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