Market Activity Holds Steady After Months of Decline; Tariffs Now Key Driver of Buyer Hesitancy

OTTAWA, ON – Canadian home sales hit a pause in April, with the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showing virtually no change (-0.1%) in sales activity compared to March 2025, ending a months-long trend of declining national sales volumes.

While the flat numbers might suggest market stability, CREA warns that ongoing tariff uncertainties—particularly on building materials—are now acting as the dominant drag on buyer sentiment, replacing the higher interest rates that characterized recent downturns.

“Right now, the Canadian housing market feels eerily like 2022—quiet and cautious,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “But the wildcard for 2025 is tariffs. There’s concern that if economic conditions worsen, we may see a spike in ‘have-to-sell’ scenarios, something we haven’t experienced in decades.”

April National Market Highlights

• Home sales: Down 0.1% month-over-month; 9.8% lower than April 2024.

• New listings: Declined 1% month-over-month.

• MLS® Home Price Index (HPI): Down 1.2% from March and 3.6% lower year-over-year.

• National average home price: $679,866, down 3.9% compared to April 2024.

• Sales-to-new listings ratio: Rose slightly to 46.8%—still indicating a balanced market, though slightly favouring buyers compared to historical averages.

Inventory levels are slowly returning to near-normal levels, with 183,000 homes listed nationally at the end of April, up 14.3% year-over-year but still below the long-term average of 201,000 for this period.

Regional Watch: Ontario, B.C. Driving Inventory Gains While Northern Markets Remain Tight

According to Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair, the current inventory recovery is largely driven by rising listings in Ontario and British Columbia, while many smaller and rural markets—including those in Northwestern Ontario—continue to experience tighter conditions.

For buyers and sellers in places like Thunder Bay, Kenora, and other Northern communities, it’s crucial to understand the unique dynamics of your local market. While national trends offer context, real opportunities—and challenges—are defined regionally.

Takeaway for Thunder Bay and Northern Ontario

The stabilizing national sales data doesn’t fully reflect local realities in Northwestern Ontario, where inventories remain limited and buyers are still facing affordability concerns amid broader economic uncertainties.

Local REALTORS® advise both buyers and sellers to carefully monitor regional listings, stay informed on tariff impacts—especially for new builds—and seek professional guidance to navigate what remains a cautious and shifting market environment.