THUNDER BAY – BUSINESS – For the first time in over six months, Canada’s housing market posted a national increase in sales, suggesting that some homebuyers are finally stepping back into the market after a turbulent spring defined by trade tensions and tariff uncertainty.
According to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales rose 3.6% nationally between April and May 2025, with Toronto, Calgary, and Ottawa leading the recovery. It’s a modest yet significant sign that the housing slowdown, triggered in part by global economic anxiety, might be softening.
“Prices have stopped falling, and sales finally picked up,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “One month doesn’t make a trend, but there’s a feeling the rebound many expected earlier this year might just have been delayed.”
Inventory and Listings Begin to Normalize
New listings rose by 3.1% in May, while the sales-to-new listings ratio remained stable at 47%, just below the long-term balanced market threshold of 54.9%. CREA reports that 201,880 properties were listed for sale at the end of May—a 13.2% increase from last year, though still slightly below the long-term monthly average.
“There’s more choice now, particularly in B.C. and Ontario, but inventory remains tight in other provinces,” noted CREA Chair Valérie Paquin.
With 4.9 months of inventory available nationally—close to the long-term norm of five months—the Canadian market remains in a relatively balanced state. A seller’s market typically exists when inventory is below 3.6 months, while anything above 6.4 months signals a buyer’s market.
Home Prices Flatlining After Months of Declines
The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) slipped just 0.2% from April to May, pausing after three months of sharper drops. Compared to May 2024, prices are down 3.5%, and 17% below the 2022 peak, but signs of stability are emerging.
This plateau may reflect buyers who were previously sidelined by uncertainty now seeing more value in the market—especially as prices appear to have hit a near-term floor.
Regional Trends: Opportunity or Overhang?
While the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver saw stronger sales, both cities remain firmly in buyer’s market territory. Quebec City, on the other hand, defied broader trends with rising prices and a new average price high despite a pullback in sales.
These regional differences reflect broader national challenges. Market confidence remains fragile, with many still wary due to global tariff instability, which has cast a long shadow over the Canadian economy and consumer sentiment.
Looking Ahead: A Window for Buyers?
The introduction of the First-Time Homebuyers GST Rebate for newly built homes—effective May 27—could further stimulate activity, particularly in the pre-construction segment. However, its effects will take months to filter through to housing start statistics.
As the summer progresses, continued rate cuts by the Bank of Canada—particularly if core inflation improves—could be the catalyst needed to bring more buyers off the sidelines.
For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, where housing markets tend to lag larger urban trends, these signs of stabilization in prices and growing inventory may present a unique window of opportunity for first-time buyers and those looking to upsize.
Bottom Line
While one strong month does not mark a market shift, May 2025 offers the first glimpse of cautious optimism in Canada’s resale housing sector. Lower prices, increasing inventory, and fading uncertainty could set the stage for a more active summer, especially if borrowing costs continue to ease.
