September 14, 2021 – Federal Election Round-up

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Election 2021 Splash

Thunder Bay – ELECTION 2021 – The latest NANO’s poll shows a virtual tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberals were on a climb following the national leader’s debate, but it appears that lead has dropped.

Polling suggests that the launch of former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould’s book “Indian in the Cabinet” and raising of past scandals with SNC Lavalin have impacted the Liberal campaign.

What it is looking like according to most pollsters is a Liberal minority government.

Global’s David Akin who has been running his own aggregate polling.  Akin sees, “Liberals (LPC) 146, a loss of nine seats vs dissolution; Conservatives (CPC) 122, a gain of three seats; NDP 43, a gain of 19 seats; Bloc Quebecois (BQ) 26, a loss of six seats; Greens (GPC) one, a drop of one.”

This is likely why opposition parties are hammering on the Liberal leader over calling the election. The issue for the Conservatives in the final week of the campaign is that Justin Trudeau called the election after promising he would not.

The Conservatives in a media release state, the party has “launched a national, multi-media advertising campaign addressing this question and the related issue of trust.

“After promising there would be no election in a pandemic, Justin Trudeau called one during the fourth wave, with the full knowledge that it was only going to worsen exponentially. It’s an election that no one wanted—including Canada’s Conservatives—and is costing Canadians more than $600 million that is desperately needed elsewhere.”

“The platforms are out and the debates are behind us,” said Erin O’Toole. “The remaining issue is trust.”

In Thunder Bay, the New Democrats are feeling that they can win seats. That confidence is backed up by leader Jagmeet Singh’s visit last weekend combined with a trip to Neskantaga on Monday.

TBRR 338Canada.com
TBRR 338Canada.com

While 338Canada.com has had Thunder Bay-Rainy River in a toss-up between all three parties, the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the New Democrats for much of the campaign. Their latest prediction on September 14 shows the NDP leading. However the website continues to show the riding as a toss-up.

338 is showing a steady Conservative slide however.

It is likely that the Liberal Leader will be making a stop in the city before the end of the campaign.

A fixture of this election campaign in both Thunder Bay-Rainy River and Thunder Bay-Superior North has been supporters of the People’s Party of Canada campaigning outside of the campaign offices of the Liberals and New Democrats.

Nanos Polling Analysis

  • Ballot Decided Voters – [Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 32.3 per cent, the Conservativesat 31.2 per cent, the NDP at 18.9 per cent, the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 6.7 per cent, and the Green Party at 3.8%. The BQ was at 27.5% in Quebec. [Also of note, exclusive of the decided respondents, from the total sample, 8.0% of Canadians were unsure in their vote.]
  • Accessible Voters – [National, Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 45.1 per cent would consider voting Liberal, while 40.7 per cent would consider voting Conservative. About four in ten (38.0%) would consider voting NDP, 22.7% would consider voting Green, 14.3 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 40.2 per cent would consider voting for the BQ (QC only).
  • Nanos Party Power Index – [National, Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals at 49.9 points, followed by the Conservatives at 49.6 points, the NDP with 47.1 points, the Greens at 26.7 points, the People’s Party at 25.9 points and the Bloc at 35.6 points (QC only).

Heading into the final week of the campaign, stay tuned for what is sure to be a battle.