September 2, 2021 – Federal Election Overview: Polling, Debates, Gaffes

Election 2021 Splash

Thunder Bay – POLITICS – All evening Twitter has been ablaze with insights into tonight’s TVA federal leader’s debate.

Heading into tonight’s debate: Ballot Decided Voters – [Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 34.2 per cent, the Liberals at 30.5 per cent, the NDP at 20.1 per cent, the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 4.8 per cent, and the Greens at 4.0 per cent. The BQ was at 26.6% in Quebec. [Also of note, exclusive of the decided respondents, from the total sample, 12.6% of Canadians were unsure in their vote.]

Accessible Voters – [National, Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 44.8 per cent would consider voting Conservative, while 43.0 per cent would consider voting Liberal. More than one in three (36.2%) would consider voting NDP, 22.3% would consider voting Green, 14.1 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 37.6 per cent would consider voting for the BQ (QC only).

David Coletto of Abacus sees the race: We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (August 24 to 29). Our survey finds the Liberals (33%) and Conservatives (32%) neck and neck, with the NDP trailing at 22%. But Conservatives are now ahead among likely voters. If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (unchanged from last week), the Conservatives 32% (up 3), the NDP 22% (down 1), the Green Party 2% (down 2) and the BQ at 34% in Quebec (up 5).

Are the debates important?

History has shown a number of times that the federal leader’s debate can swing an election. A poor showing by former Liberal leader and Prime Minister John Turner led to the defeat of his government.

Another poor showing by Kim Campbell, the first woman PM and leader of the Progressive Conservatives led to the party falling to two seats across Canada.

A major gaffe by a party leader in the debate can lead to problems.

Some however suggest the debates are not watched except by solid political observers and pundits.

Did the Leader of the Green Party make a major campaign gaffe?

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