Tracking the Impact of the SNC-Lavalin Controvery – Weekend Update

National Politics

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By David Coletto

OTTAWA – POLITICS – Since February 28, we have been interviewing 300 people each day and rolling 3 days of data into a snapshot of public opinion over those three days.

Over the three days, we interview a representative sample of 900 Canadian adults online. The comparable margin of error is +/- 3.3%, 19 times out of 20. Each wave is weighted to match the Canadian population by age, gender, region, language, and educational attainment.

Here’s a quick look at some of the dynamics our tracking has captured:

The Conservatives have a slight lead over the Liberals. Based on the sample size, there’s an 89% chance the Conservatives are in the lead. There’s an 11% chance the Liberals are ahead.

Mr. Trudeau’s personal image remains in the red. The gap between those with a positive view and those with a negative one has persisted since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony.

But Mr. Scheer’s image hasn’t benefited from the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Those with a positive view of the Conservative leader has dropped 5 points since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony.

Mr. Singh has seen almost no change in impressions over this period, which also included his by-election win in Burnaby South at the end of February.

By Saturday, Mr. Trudeau had opened up an 8-point lead over Mr. Scheer on who Canadians would prefer as PM after the next election. 

Attention to the controversy hasn’t really changed since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. All the movement is within the comparable margin of error.

The percentage of those thinking Prime Minister Trudeau should resign has declined over time. Yesterday, 34% were inclined to say “yes” he should resign, the lowest we have tracked since February 28.


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