Thunder Bay – POLITICS 2.0 – With just days before Canadians tune in to the only two federal leaders’ debates, a new Abacus Data poll (April 14–15) shows the Liberal Party’s national lead slipping, with Mark Carney’s Liberals polling at 40% and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives closing the gap at 38%.
While the margin is slim, what’s driving interest in political backrooms is who’s most likely to show up on election day. Among the most certain voters, the Conservatives hold a narrow lead, suggesting that motivation and momentum may be shifting—even if polling averages haven’t caught up yet.
Abacus Poll: Liberals at 40%, Conservatives Close Behind at 38%
The poll, conducted just ahead of the French-language debate (Wednesday) and English debate (Thursday), reflects growing voter volatility. Just two weeks ago, the Liberals held a six-point lead. Now, that gap is down to two points—and with key campaign moments still ahead, the race is entering too-close-to-call territory.
While the topline numbers show a tight contest, regional breakdowns still favour the Liberals:
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In British Columbia, the race is tied.
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In Ontario, the Liberals lead by seven points, a key firewall that could protect their seat count.
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In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, they maintain smaller but stable leads.
Turnout Could Tip the Scales as Conservatives Lead Among Most Certain Voters
The crucial detail? Among those most committed to voting, the Conservatives take the edge. That suggests an enthusiasm advantage for Poilievre, which could narrow the seat gap if turnout is high in Conservative strongholds.
For Thunder Bay–Rainy River and Thunder Bay–Superior North, this matters. If Conservative support solidifies in rural Northwestern Ontario, it may offset Liberal strength in the cities, especially with the NDP vote showing signs of softening in several ridings.
Carney’s Edge Shrinks as Poilievre Gains Slight Momentum
On leadership, Mark Carney still leads as the “Preferred Prime Minister” by six points, though that’s down from nine last week. His net favourability rating dipped slightly to +13, while Poilievre’s improved modestly to –3.
The trend line is clear: Carney remains ahead, but Poilievre is closing the gap. These two debates are likely to either solidify Carney’s advantage or ignite a last-minute Conservative surge.
Cost-of-Living Returns as Top Concern; Trump Fades from Spotlight
The poll also shows a resurgence of cost-of-living issues, which jumped two points—a reminder that economic anxiety remains a potent campaign driver. This could benefit Poilievre, whose message has centered on inflation, affordability, and government spending.
By contrast, concern about how Canada handles Donald Trump’s policies and threats has dropped three points, suggesting the tariff and annexation panic may have peaked.
In Northwestern Ontario, where affordability, food security, and energy prices hit harder than in urban centres, the cost-of-living spike could influence undecided voters—especially those weighing Liberal promises against Conservative populism.
Final Stretch: Debates May Be Decisive
Nearly half of Canadians (48%) still believe the Liberals will ultimately win, compared to 32% predicting a Conservative victory. But with voter volatility at its highest, and strategic vote-shifting on the rise, the debates could define the final trajectory of the campaign.
Abacus will release new data over the Easter long weekend to capture post-debate reactions, making the next 72 hours potentially decisive.
