OTTAWA – POLITICS 2.0 – Members of the Conservative Party of Canada will vote this coming January on whether Pierre Poilievre should remain as party leader, following the party’s failure to win the April 2025 federal election.
According to multiple sources, the party’s national council met over the weekend and selected Calgary as the site of the vote. While no exact date has been finalized, the last week of January is being targeted for the leadership review.
Although some party insiders had floated a March convention, Poilievre reportedly pushed for an earlier decision. A Conservative Party spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.
From Frontrunner to Fallout
At the start of 2024, Poilievre’s Conservatives were polling with a commanding double-digit lead over the governing Liberals.
His focus on the economy and widespread dissatisfaction with then-prime minister Justin Trudeau had many pundits predicting a change in government in 2025.
However, political winds shifted dramatically with Donald Trump’s return to the White House in November 2024. Trump’s reimposed tariffs on Canadian goods and provocative comments about Canada becoming the “51st state” sparked a surge in nationalist sentiment.
This shift boosted the Liberals, who then made a pivotal leadership change: Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada, replaced Trudeau, dissolved Parliament, and called an early election.
Carney led the Liberals to a fourth-term minority government, while Poilievre’s Conservatives made gains but fell short of forming government.
Poilievre Loses Seat, Faces Leadership Test
Despite increasing their seat count and share of the popular vote, the election outcome triggered the party’s constitutional requirement for a leadership review. Poilievre also lost his own seat and is expected to run in a by-election in Alberta’s Battle River–Crowfoot riding.
Prime Minister Carney has pledged to call the by-election as soon as logistics permit.
This leadership review will be the first since 2004 when Stephen Harper secured his leadership following a federal defeat and later led the party to three consecutive wins.
Since Harper’s 2015 resignation, successors Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole both stepped down before facing full membership review after the 2019 and 2021 elections, respectively.
Conservative Soul-Searching
Internally, Conservatives are divided on why the party lost what many believed was theirs to win. Some blame the collapse of the NDP vote, which consolidated progressive support behind the Liberals. Others point to strategic inflexibility.
“We didn’t pivot quickly enough,” Conservative MP Brad Vis said in a recent episode of the Bigger Than Me podcast. “We were rightfully focused on cost-of-living issues, but we didn’t speak enough about the challenges Trump posed. Canadians didn’t see us as the party best prepared to deal with that.”
One of the issues facing the Conservative leader is without a seat in the House of Commons, his media presence is greatly reduced. So too has been his major presence on social media, the last video on his Youtube channel was on the eve of the election.
Less media presence is going to hit the Conservative leader as the latest polls are showing confidence in the leadership of Mark Carney.
