Ivanhoe lowered its 2027 Kamoa-Kakula copper outlook, raised cost guidance and shifted more capital spending into next year

The Toronto-listed miner raised next year’s cost forecast and shifted more capital into 2027 while outlining a longer route back to 500,000 tonnes of annual copper output

Thunder Bay – International Mining – Ivanhoe Mines has lowered its 2027 copper production outlook for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo and raised its expected cash-cost range as the company works through lower grades, high diesel costs and the continuing turnaround of the Kakula underground mine.

The Toronto-listed company said Nov. 3 that Kamoa-Kakula is now expected to produce 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper in 2027. Its earlier range was 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes. Cash costs are now forecast at US$2.50 to US$3 per pound, up from US$2.10 to US$2.50.

That change matters beyond one mine. Kamoa-Kakula is a major source of new global copper supply, while Ivanhoe is one of the larger mining companies listed in Canada. Copper is central to electricity networks, vehicles, construction and defence manufacturing, so production and cost changes at large operations can affect markets, investors and project planning.

Quarterly profit rises while the operating plan changes

Ivanhoe reported third-quarter profit after tax of US$45 million, compared with US$31 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were US$241 million, up from US$86 million in the same quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is a company-defined, non-GAAP measure and should not be read as net income or cash flow.

Kamoa-Kakula produced 76,401 tonnes of copper in saleable products during the quarter. The joint venture recorded US$1.034 billion in revenue and US$478 million in EBITDA, helped by higher copper prices and sulphuric-acid sales. Ivanhoe expects about 290,000 tonnes of copper production in 2026.

The stronger revenue does not remove the execution risk. Ivanhoe said Kamoa-Kakula held about 43,000 tonnes of unsold copper at quarter-end. Its third-quarter cash cost was US$3 per pound, compared with US$2.62 a year earlier. The company attributed the increase mainly to higher mining and smelting costs, partly offset by sulphuric-acid credits.

More spending moves into 2027

Ivanhoe narrowed Kamoa-Kakula’s 2026 capital-spending forecast to US$1.1 billion to US$1.2 billion by lowering the top of the range by US$200 million. That spending has been deferred: the 2027 range rises to US$950 million to US$1.15 billion, excluding an estimated US$100 million to US$200 million for open-pit pre-stripping.

The company plans to begin pre-stripping the first shallow, high-grade open pits in the first quarter of 2027 and expects first ore in the third quarter. It is also preparing a Phase 4 expansion intended to restore production capacity to about 500,000 tonnes a year. Detailed engineering is expected to start in the first quarter of 2027, but project approval has not been announced. Ivanhoe estimates construction would take 18 to 24 months after approval.

A revised life-of-mine plan is due in March 2027. That document should give investors a clearer view of how underground recovery, open-pit feed and the proposed expansion fit together.

Kipushi provides a counterweight

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi mine, also in the DRC, produced a quarterly record of 77,147 tonnes of zinc in concentrate. The company tightened its 2026 guidance to 270,000 to 290,000 tonnes, raising the bottom of the previous range by 30,000 tonnes.

For Canadian investors and mining-service firms, the update presents two different pictures: rising zinc output at Kipushi and a more costly, slower recovery path at Kamoa-Kakula. Neither set of forecasts is guaranteed. The company identifies power, dewatering, contractor mobilization, mine-plan approval and underground-infrastructure integrity among the risks.

What happens next

Ivanhoe is scheduled to discuss the results on an investor call at 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 4. The March 2027 life-of-mine plan, the start of open-pit pre-stripping and any Phase 4 approval will be the next major tests of the revised strategy.