What would it take to restore VIA Rail passenger service to Thunder Bay after a 36-year absence?

THUNDER BAY — NEWS — Prime Minister Mark Carney put passenger rail back on Thunder Bay’s political agenda Thursday, saying during his visit to the city that restoring VIA Rail service to Thunder Bay would be a priority for his government.

The statement came on the same day Ottawa announced a $4.7-billion purchase of 313 new VIA Rail passenger cars from Alstom Canada, with manufacturing and assembly work taking place in Thunder Bay and La Pocatière, Que.

The new equipment will renew VIA’s aging long-distance, regional and remote fleet beginning in the next decade.

For Thunder Bay residents who have been without regular VIA passenger service since 1990, Carney’s comments raise an obvious question:

What would actually have to happen before passengers could once again board a VIA train in Thunder Bay?

Restoring Passenger Rail Would Take More Than Buying New Trains

The good news is that the railway itself still exists.

The more complicated reality is that VIA Rail does not control most of the tracks it uses.

Transport Canada documents that approximately 97 per cent of VIA Rail’s network is owned by third-party railway companies, including Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City.

VIA operates on those tracks through commercial agreements with the host railway companies.

That means returning VIA service to Thunder Bay would require Ottawa and VIA Rail to settle several major questions:

• Which route would the train use?
• Would CPKC agree to accommodate passenger trains?
• Would additional track capacity be required?
• Where would Thunder Bay’s passenger station be located?
• Which communities would receive stops?
• How frequently would trains operate?
• What rolling stock would be assigned?
• How much would the service cost annually?
• Would Ottawa commit to long-term operating subsidies?

There are also two very different ways VIA could return.

Option One: Extend the Existing Sudbury–White River Train to Thunder Bay

The most straightforward concept may be extending VIA Rail’s existing Sudbury–White River regional service west to Thunder Bay.

VIA currently operates between Sudbury and White River three times a week in each direction. The route is approximately 483 kilometres long and already operates primarily over Canadian Pacific infrastructure.

The railway does not stop at White River, CPKC’s main line continues west from White River through the North Shore corridor toward Schreiber, Nipigon and Thunder Bay.

Transportation Safety Board records describe the Heron Bay Subdivision running from White River to Schreiber and the Nipigon Subdivision continuing from Schreiber into Thunder Bay. Both have historically been predominantly single-track main lines controlled through centralized traffic-control systems.

In practical terms, extending the Sudbury train would reconnect communities along much of the historic Lake Superior passenger corridor without requiring VIA to change its existing transcontinental route.

Communities potentially benefiting from a restored North Shore service could include areas around White River, Marathon, Schreiber, Terrace Bay, Nipigon and Thunder Bay, depending on station locations and the final operating plan.

The White River-to-Thunder Bay rail distance is roughly another 400 kilometres.

That would make the service considerably longer, however, and could require new operating crews, servicing arrangements, scheduling changes and possibly an overnight or substantially extended operating day.

Still, it may be easier than the alternative.

Option Two: Bring The Canadian Back Through Thunder Bay

The more ambitious option would be returning VIA Rail’s Toronto-Vancouver train, The Canadian, to its historic route through Thunder Bay.

That would be much more complicated.

Today, The Canadian travels across Northern Ontario over the CN corridor through communities including Hornepayne, Longlac, Armstrong and Sioux Lookout before continuing to Winnipeg.

Thunder Bay is well south of that route.

Returning the transcontinental train to the Lake Superior route would therefore mean either rerouting The Canadian away from communities it currently serves or operating additional passenger service.

Simply moving the train south would create winners and losers.

Communities such as Armstrong and Sioux Lookout currently depend on VIA service, and some remote locations along the CN route have limited transportation alternatives.

A federal government promising better northern passenger transportation would likely be reluctant to restore Thunder Bay service by removing service elsewhere.

That is why a new or extended regional service through Thunder Bay may be more realistic than rerouting the existing Toronto-Vancouver train.

Thunder Bay Lost VIA Service in 1990

Regular VIA service through Thunder Bay ended during major national passenger-rail reductions in January 1990.

Federal regulations from that period specifically ordered the discontinuation of the White River-Thunder Bay and Thunder Bay-Winnipeg portions of VIA’s transcontinental service effective Jan. 15, 1990.

Before those cuts, the Canadian Pacific route along Lake Superior had been part of Canada’s transcontinental passenger network for more than a century.

The cancellation meant Thunder Bay — one of the largest cities between Winnipeg and Sudbury — was removed from the national passenger-rail system.

Meanwhile, the Toronto-Vancouver service shifted to the more northerly CN route.

Restoration would therefore not involve creating a completely new transportation corridor.

It would involve returning passenger trains to an active freight railway that historically carried passenger service.

The Biggest Negotiation Would Be With CPKC

The railway tracks between White River and Thunder Bay are not VIA Rail property.

That makes CPKC one of the key players in any restoration plan.

VIA normally negotiates Train Service Agreements with freight railways governing track access, schedules, operating arrangements and payments.

Transport Canada acknowledges that reliance on freight-owned infrastructure creates challenges for passenger service, particularly when freight and passenger trains compete for limited capacity.

Passenger trains do not automatically receive unrestricted priority simply because VIA is a federal Crown corporation.

If VIA and a host railway cannot reach agreement, the Canada Transportation Act contains mechanisms involving the Canadian Transportation Agency.

Section 138 allows a railway company to apply to the agency for rights to operate over another railway company’s tracks, with compensation payable to the host railway.

In practice, however, Ottawa would almost certainly prefer a negotiated agreement.

For CPKC, the major concern would be maintaining the movement of freight.

The Lake Superior corridor is part of an important national freight route.

Adding passenger trains means dispatchers have to fit a comparatively fast, schedule-sensitive passenger service around much longer freight trains.

That is where infrastructure becomes important.

Some Railway Infrastructure Could Need Upgrading

The existence of tracks does not mean a passenger train can simply begin operating tomorrow.

A detailed engineering and capacity study would need to examine the entire route.

Potential requirements could include:

additional passing sidings, extensions to existing sidings, signalling improvements, track work, passenger platforms, road crossings, communications infrastructure and modifications at locations where passengers would board.

The central issue would be capacity.

Much of the historic North Shore railway is single track.

On a single-track railway, an eastbound passenger train cannot simply pass a westbound freight train anywhere it wants.

One train has to enter a siding while the other passes.

A passenger schedule that repeatedly conflicts with freight traffic would quickly become unreliable.

Transport Canada has concluded more broadly that shared freight infrastructure is one of VIA Rail’s major operational challenges and that dedicated infrastructure generally provides more reliable passenger service.

A Thunder Bay route would not necessarily require an entirely separate passenger railway.

But Ottawa might have to pay for targeted improvements that provide enough capacity to accommodate both passenger and freight trains.

Thunder Bay Would Need a Passenger Station

A restored service would also need somewhere for people to safely board the train.

Thunder Bay no longer has an operating VIA Rail passenger station.

The city, VIA Rail, CPKC and potentially other levels of government would therefore need to choose a site.

A modern passenger facility would require more than a platform.

At minimum, planners would have to consider:

• an accessible passenger platform;
• heated indoor waiting space;
• washrooms;
• lighting and security;
• parking and passenger drop-off areas;
• connections with Thunder Bay Transit and taxis;
• wheelchair accessibility;
• baggage handling, depending on service level; and
• safe separation between passengers and freight operations.

A major terminal would not necessarily be required.

VIA operates many smaller regional stations using relatively modest facilities.

But a city the size of Thunder Bay could reasonably expect something more substantial than an unattended rural stop, particularly if the train were intended to serve tourists, seniors, students, medical travellers and people making long-distance connections.

The location would matter.

A station far from downtown, transit and hotels would reduce the usefulness of the service.

New VIA Equipment Creates an Opportunity

The timing of Carney’s statement is significant.

Ottawa has now committed more than $6.6 billion to renew VIA’s long-distance, regional and remote fleet.

That includes 45 new locomotives, a new Montreal assembly and maintenance facility and the 313 passenger cars announced Thursday.

The existing Sudbury-White River service uses aging rail equipment that has experienced maintenance challenges.

Earlier this year, the service was temporarily suspended because of significant maintenance issues affecting its equipment.

The federal fleet replacement means Ottawa will soon have to decide how new equipment is distributed across regional and remote services.

That creates an obvious planning opportunity.

If the government is serious about Thunder Bay passenger rail, the new fleet could be designed and allocated with an expanded Northern Ontario service in mind.

The first new equipment is expected to begin entering service around 2031, according to reporting on Thursday’s fleet announcement.

That timeframe also illustrates why restoration would require decisions soon.

Route planning, agreements, station design, environmental work, engineering and infrastructure construction could take several years.

Who Would Ride It?

Any business case would have to examine potential ridership.

Thunder Bay has several potential passenger markets.

Students could travel between Northern Ontario communities.

Seniors and patients could use rail for medical travel.

Tourists could use the Lake Superior route as a destination in itself.

Residents without vehicles would gain another transportation option.

People travelling east could connect through Sudbury, while western service could potentially connect Thunder Bay with Winnipeg if Ottawa eventually pursued a wider regional network.

There is also a significant safety argument.

Highways 11 and 17 are effectively Northwestern Ontario’s transportation lifelines.

Closures caused by collisions, weather or construction can isolate communities and disrupt travel over enormous distances.

Passenger rail would not replace highways or air travel.

It would provide another option.

That redundancy has value in a region where transportation alternatives are limited.

A Thunder Bay Train Would Need to Be Useful, Not Symbolic

Frequency would be critical.

A train that runs only occasionally and arrives at inconvenient overnight hours would have limited usefulness for most residents.

A credible service would need a timetable designed around passengers rather than simply whatever gaps remain between freight trains.

Even three round trips per week — similar to the existing Sudbury-White River operation — could provide a starting point.

But the long-term objective would need to be reliability.

Passengers will not make medical appointments, hotel reservations or travel connections around a train that routinely arrives hours late.

That means Ottawa’s negotiations with CPKC would be as important as the equipment itself.

Restoring Service Could Also Strengthen North Shore Communities

Thunder Bay would not be the only beneficiary.

A passenger route along the North Shore could reconnect communities that lost rail service more than three decades ago.

Depending on the final route and station plan, passenger service could strengthen transportation options for communities between White River and Thunder Bay.

There could also be a tourism opportunity.

The railway through the Lake Superior region passes through some of the most dramatic scenery in Canada.

A service marketed solely as transportation would miss part of its economic potential.

Northern Ontario could potentially combine regular passenger transportation with tourism packages tied to Lake Superior, hiking, paddling, fishing and Indigenous tourism.

That would not replace the need for a sound transportation business case.

It could strengthen it.

Indigenous Communities Would Need a Seat at the Table

Any modern Northern Ontario passenger-rail strategy should also involve First Nations from the beginning.

The railway corridor passes through or near numerous traditional territories.

First Nations residents also travel frequently between northern communities and regional centres for health care, education, employment and family reasons.

Passenger rail could therefore have implications for Indigenous mobility as well as tourism and economic development.

Consultation should go beyond discussing where tracks already exist.

Questions about station locations, employment, procurement, tourism opportunities and service needs should include Indigenous governments and businesses.

Ottawa Would Have to Fund the Operating Cost

There is another reality that political announcements sometimes avoid.

Regional passenger trains generally require public funding.

A Thunder Bay route is unlikely to operate entirely from ticket revenue.

Neither does much of Canada’s existing passenger-rail network.

The federal government would therefore need to make a long-term commitment not merely to buying trains and rebuilding stations, but to subsidizing operations year after year.

That means crews, fuel, maintenance, track-access payments, stations, insurance and administration.

Without that commitment, a restored route could become vulnerable during the next federal budget restraint.

Thunder Bay knows that history already.

What Would Have to Happen Next?

If Carney’s statement is to become an operating railway rather than an election-era aspiration, the next steps should become visible relatively quickly.

Ottawa would need to direct VIA Rail and Transport Canada to develop a formal Northern Ontario passenger-rail feasibility and implementation study.

That study should compare at least two options:

Extending the Sudbury-White River service to Thunder Bay, and

Developing a broader Thunder Bay-Winnipeg or transcontinental service without reducing existing service to communities on VIA’s CN route.

VIA would then need detailed discussions with CPKC about track capacity, scheduling and infrastructure.

Thunder Bay would need to identify a station location.

Communities along the North Shore would need to determine where stops make sense.

Ottawa would need to establish capital and operating costs.

And the federal government would ultimately have to put money behind the promise.

For Thunder Bay, This Could Be More Than the Return of a Train

Thursday was already significant for Thunder Bay’s railway history.

The federal government announced that hundreds of VIA Rail passenger cars will once again be built in this city.

Carney’s comments about bringing passenger service back add another dimension.

Thunder Bay could eventually become both a city that builds Canada’s passenger trains and is served by them.

That outcome is technically possible.

The railway corridor exists.

VIA already operates as far west as White River on the CPKC route.

New locomotives and passenger equipment are being purchased.

And Ottawa controls VIA Rail’s mandate and funding.

The difficult parts are access, capacity, stations, schedules and a permanent operating commitment.

Those are solvable problems.

But they require more than political enthusiasm.

The real test of Thursday’s statement will be whether Transport Canada and VIA Rail are soon instructed to put a route, timetable, infrastructure plan and price tag on returning passenger trains to Thunder Bay.

Until that happens, restoring VIA Rail remains a priority in words.

Once those steps begin, Thunder Bay can start talking seriously about the day passengers might again hear “All aboard”in the city.