The NDP’s path back starts with accepting how deep the collapse has been

Thunder Bay – POLITICS – From March 27 to 29, New Democrats are meeting in Winnipeg to choose a new federal leader after the 2025 election reduced the party to seven seats and cost it official party status in the House of Commons.

The problem is now even sharper: the House of Commons lists the NDP at six MPs after Nunavut MP Lori Idlout crossed to the Liberals on March 11.

Public attention has been thin as well.

An Angus Reid Institute poll released this week found 44 per cent of Canadians who voted NDP at least once since 2015 could not name any of the current leadership candidates, and Policy Magazine recently described the race as “low-energy” despite what is plainly a high-stakes moment for the party.

In Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, that matters because the federal NDP’s erosion is no longer just an Ottawa story. In the 2025 election, the party finished with 6.8 per cent in Thunder Bay—Rainy River and 7.1 per cent in Thunder Bay—Superior North.

That means any regional comeback now has to begin almost from scratch federally, even in a part of Ontario where labour politics, public services, affordability and Indigenous issues should give New Democrats room to compete.

The Winnipeg choice matters, but the real test begins on Monday

The path forward for the federal NDP is not mainly about which of the five candidates wins.

It is about whether the party can decide what it is for, whom it is speaking to and how it plans to matter again in a political environment dominated by Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Recent national polling still places the NDP in single digits, around eight to nine per cent, which shows the challenge is not simply internal morale. It is relevance.

First, the party has to reclaim the working-class lane

The clearest warning sign in the Angus Reid research is not just low name recognition for the leadership field. It is that many past NDP voters are unsure the party still represents working-class people.

The institute found 23 per cent of past New Democrat voters do not agree that the NDP is the party of the working class, while 40 per cent say the party’s best days are behind it.

That points to the first task for the next leader: move the party back onto unmistakable ground on wages, housing, grocery costs, health care, pensions and job security. If voters are not sure what problem the NDP solves, they will continue to treat it as optional.

Second, the NDP has to look independent again

One of the biggest political wounds from the Singh years is the party’s blurred identity beside the Liberals. Analysts continue to argue the NDP did not get enough public credit for the policies it influenced and could not persuade voters that proximity to government was producing a distinct New Democratic project.

In practical terms, that means the next leader has to stop sounding like a smaller Liberal leader and start sounding like the head of a separate national party with its own economic and social program.

Criticizing Carney from the left on housing delivery, labour standards, public services and inequality is not enough on its own, but without that clear separation the NDP will keep losing soft progressive voters to the Liberals.

Third, the rebuild has to be organizational, not cosmetic

The most useful comments in this race may have been the least flashy ones.

Several candidates have argued that the party needs stronger riding associations, earlier nominations and deeper year-round organizing, especially after an election in which the NDP’s national machine plainly failed.

Tanille Johnston told The Canadian Press the party should nominate candidates much earlier, while Rob Ashton said rebuilding trust will require face-to-face work, not just social media.

That is the right instinct. A party that has slipped this far cannot rebrand its way back. It has to recruit candidates early, rebuild volunteer networks and concentrate resources in ridings it can realistically win.

Fourth, the party has to settle its energy and climate argument

The Winnipeg convention has also exposed a live fault line between the federal party and some provincial wings, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Saturday’s final pitches showed energy policy remains a dividing issue, with Avi Lewis pressing a sharper anti-fossil-fuel message and Heather McPherson emphasizing the importance of not undermining provincial parties trying to win in the Prairies.

The next leader does not need to erase that disagreement, but does need to manage it. The most viable path is a jobs-and-transition message that links climate policy to union work, lower household costs, grid expansion, housing construction and industrial strategy.

Otherwise the NDP risks sounding unelectable in producing regions and unserious in urban progressive ones.

Fifth, the new leader should get into the House of Commons quickly

There is a real debate inside the race about whether the next leader needs a seat right away.

Four of the five candidates told The Canadian Press they are in no hurry to enter Parliament if they win, while McPherson argued the opposite and said the next leader should be able to hold the government to account in the House on day one.

On balance, McPherson has the stronger argument. Canadian federal politics is intensely leader-driven, and a party down to six MPs can ill afford a leader who is absent from question period, daily national coverage and parliamentary combat.

Grassroots organizing matters, but rebuilding credibility also requires national visibility.

For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, a comeback would have to be practical

In this region, the NDP’s path back is not through abstract branding or imported slogans.

It would have to be built around the issues that shape daily life in the Northwest: access to health care, affordability, Indigenous services, northern infrastructure, transportation, housing and jobs tied to resource communities.

The 2025 federal results in both Thunder Bay ridings show the party is nowhere near contention today. That means the next leader should treat Northwestern Ontario less as a symbolic stop and more as a test case for whether the federal party can reconnect with working communities outside the largest cities.

The narrow road back is still there

The NDP has been here before. Policy Magazine notes the party’s 1993 collapse was followed by recovery under Alexa McDonough, which is a reminder that near-death is not the same thing as extinction.

But the conditions for a comeback are tougher now. Carney has consolidated much of the progressive anti-Conservative vote, Poilievre still dominates the right, and even many past NDP voters do not yet know who is asking to lead them.

The winner in Winnipeg will inherit a party that still has about 100,000 members eligible to vote in this contest, but not yet a clear claim on the broader national conversation.

The path forward is therefore narrow but plain: rebuild the party as a disciplined, worker-focused, regionally literate social democratic force that can organize between elections, speak plainly about economic insecurity and prove it is more than an echo of the Liberals.