The Antalya summit has shifted toward limiting the depth and duration of global temperature overshoot as national plans remain far short of what scientists say is needed
ANTALYA, Türkiye — NetNewsLedger International News Service – World leaders opened COP31’s high-level summit with warnings that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, placing greater pressure on governments to cut emissions faster and finance adaptation in vulnerable countries.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres told the gathering that overshooting the Paris Agreement threshold is now inevitable. He called for a faster transition away from fossil fuels, more support for developing countries and stronger measures against methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that can deliver relatively rapid climate benefits when emissions are reduced.
The latest UN assessment shows why the gap remains so large. Climate plans submitted by 154 parties, covering about 71% of global emissions, would lower emissions by an average of only 6% from 2019 levels by 2035. Conditional promises dependent on finance or other support would raise that reduction to about 9%.
If those plans and longer-term net-zero commitments are fully implemented, the UN estimates warming could reach between 1.7 C and 2.3 C by 2100. Existing policies point to a substantially hotter outcome.
Leaders from vulnerable countries said overshoot is already translating into lost homes, damaged harvests and disappearing coral reefs. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley urged a sharp methane reduction, while Pacific leaders described climate change as a direct threat to their security and livelihoods.
The summit’s political weight is limited by notable absences. The leaders of China, the United States and India, together responsible for more than half of global carbon dioxide emissions, did not attend. Negotiations continue through Nov. 20, with fossil-fuel dependence, adaptation funding and implementation of existing commitments at the centre of the talks.
Sources: UN Secretary-General’s COP31 address; UNFCCC 2026 climate-plan assessment;
