Year-end Polls Show Conservatives in the lead


Canada FlagTHUNDER BAY – Politics – The year politicially has finished up with the Conservatives maintaining a lead in the polls. The latest CTV/Globe/Nanos tracking completed in December has the Conservatives at 36.5% followed by the NDP at 28.7%, the Liberals at 25.6%, the Bloc at 4.4% and the Green Party at 3.8% nationally. Support for the NDP continues to slide in Quebec with the BQ continuing to be the main beneficiary. In Quebec the NDP are at 33.4%, followed by the Liberals at 22.9%, the Conservatives at 20.8% and the BQ at 19.9%.

Nok Nanos states, “A look at the longer term trend line in Quebec suggests there is a direct inverse relationship between the support for the NDP and the BQ. BQ fortunes may be on the rise for a number of reasons including the absence of an NDP leader and a series of controversial federal appointments made by the Harper government. Even with these factors, there is a three-way tie for second in Quebec between the Liberals, the Conservatives and the BQ.

“Ontario continues to witness a decline in support for the Conservatives. There is now a three-way statistical tie in the province of Ontario, factoring the provincial margin of error, between the Conservatives (34.5%), the Liberals (31.8%) and the NDP (29.5%). Shifts in support in Ontario in favour of the NDP are likely part of a wake-effect of the Conservatives delivering on a series of promises that were more ideological in focus.

“Regardless, on the leadership front, Harper maintains a very clear advantage over the two other interim federal leaders (Rae and Turmel). Rae is firmly in second on the Nanos leadership index, followed by Turmel and Elizabeth May”.

In terms of issues, jobs/the economy remains the top issue for Canadians, but there was a noticeable increase in the number of Canadians who cited the environment as the top national issue of concern as focus on the Harper Government’s position on Kyoto was in the news mix (9.7% cited the environment as their top unprompted issue in December compared to 4.9% in November).

Between December 15th and 18th, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 900 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for November 21st, 2011 are from a random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians conducted between November 16th and 21st, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from November 21st, 2011 (n=938). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=900 committed voters)
Conservative 36.5% (+0.9)
NDP 28.7% (+1.4)
Liberal 25.6% (-2.5)
Bloc Quebecois 4.4% (+0.5)
Green 3.8% (-0.1)
*Undecided 25.1% (+3.2)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,201)

Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from November 21st, 2011 (n=1,202).

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 100.5 (-1.9)
Bob Rae 41.4 (-2.5)
Nycole Turmel 28.9 (+4.0)
Elizabeth May 19.8 (+4.3)

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper 30.8% (-1.4)
Bob Rae 14.9% (-0.2)
Elizabeth May 9.8% (+2.8)
Nycole Turmel 9.4% (+0.3)
Unsure 17.6% (-3.3)
None 17.4% (+1.6)

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper 38.4% (-0.6)
Bob Rae 15.1% (NC)
Nycole Turmel 8.0% (+1.8)
Elizabeth May 2.6% (-0.8)
Unsure 24.6% (+1.0)
None 11.3% (-1.4)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper 31.3% (+0.1)
Nycole Turmel 11.5% (+1.9)
Bob Rae 11.4% (-2.3)
Elizabeth May 7.4% (+2.3)
Unsure 25.9% (-0.1)
None 12.5% (-1.8)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] (n=1,201)

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from November 21st, 2011 (n=1,202).

Jobs/economy 25.0% (-4.3)
Healthcare 22.6% (-0.2)
The environment 9.7% (+4.8)
Education 7.2% (+1.0)
Debt/deficit 5.1% (+0.9)
Unsure 9.5% (-2.3)

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