THUNDER BAY – On the heels of yesterday’s horserace poll that revealed a dead heat between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives, a new Ipsos Reid poll of decided voters reveals that in the span of a month, Dalton McGuinty has convinced a plurality of voters that he is the man that would make the best Premier of Ontario, likely a function of the fact that nearly two thirds (63%) now believe the province is on the right track, an increase of 12 points since last month. Everything seems to be moving in the right direction for the Liberals, with momentum clearly on their side over the first week of the campaign.
The poll, conducted on behalf of Global Television, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen found that four in ten (39%) voters believe that Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty would make the best Premier of Ontario while one in three (31%) believe that PC leader Tim Hudak would make the best Premier of the province. NDP leader Andrea Horwath gets the nod from 20% of voters, while one in ten (10%) aren’t sure who would be best at the job.
An Ipsos poll released in early August showed Tim Hudak with the lead, but in roughly a month the two leading contenders appear to have flipped positions.
Premier McGuinty has been featured in a series of Liberal ads where he defends his government’s record over the past eight years, admitting that while he might not be the most popular man, he’s made the right choices for Ontario. For much of the time these ads were on the air, they seemingly went unanswered by the other parties, likely helping to fuel the rise in his level of personal support in the polls to the point where he is once again in the lead.
Dalton McGuinty has also succeeded as of late in convincing more Ontarians that his government deserves another four years in office. Among those with a view either way, four in ten (40%) believe that the ‘McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election’, a number that often correlates closely with the proportion of votes a party receives on Election Day, up 6 points since last month. Conversely, six in ten (60%) more closely believe that ‘it’s time for another provincial party to take over’, down 6 points in a month.
Why have the Liberals met with more success as of late? Among those with a view either way, nearly two thirds (63%) of Ontarians believe that Ontario is ‘on the right track’, up 12 points since last month. Conversely, just four in ten (37%) now believe that the province is ‘headed in the wrong direction’, down 12 points since last month.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 7-11, 2011, on behalf of Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen. A representative, randomly-selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled.
Four in Ten (39%) Believe McGuinty Would Make Best Premier, Hudak (31%), Horwath (20%) Trail…
Dalton McGuinty has once again claimed top spot as the party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario:
McGuinty polls best in Northern Ontario (45%), followed by the GTA (40%), Southwest Ontario (39%), Eastern Ontario (38%), and finally Central Ontario (35%). Hudak does best in Central (36%) and Eastern Ontario (36%), followed by the Southwest (33%), GTA (28%) and Northern Ontario (22%).
While Dalton McGuinty’s support doesn’t change significantly across age groups (18-54: 40%, 55+: 36%), just 23% of 18-34 year olds believe Hudak would make the best Premier, compared to 32% of those age 35 to 54 and 39% of those age 55+. Conversely, Andrea Horwath’s support is greatest among those aged 18 to 34 (26%), but drops among middle-aged (19%) and older (15%) Ontarians.
Similarly, Dalton McGuinty’s support is even across gender (men: 40%, women: 38%), while Tim Hudak does far better among men (35%) than women (27%), and Andrea Horwath performs better among women (24%) compared to men (17%).
Two Thirds (63%) Believe Ontario on the Right Track…
Two in three (63%) Ontarians believe the province is on the right track, up 12 points since last month, compared to four in ten (37%) who believe it’s headed in the wrong direction, down 12 points.
Those aged 18 to 34 (69%) are most likely to believe it’s on the right track, while middle-aged (62%) and older (57%) Ontarians are less likely to think so.
Women (65%) are more positive than men (60%).
Those in the GTA (66%), particularly the 416 at (71%), Northern (65%) and Southwestern Ontario (64%) are more likely than those living in the Central (57%) or Eastern (57%) Ontario to believe the province is heading in the right direction.
Four in Ten (40%) Believe the McGuinty Government Deserves Re-Election…
Four in ten (40%) believe that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election (up 6 points), while six in ten (60%) believe that it’s time for another party to take over (down 6 points).
Those living in the 416 (48%) and 905 (42%) are most likely to believe his government deserves re-election along with those living in Northern Ontario (44%), while those living in Eastern (37%), Central (34%) and Southwestern (34%) Ontario are much less inclined to agree.
Nearly one half (47%) of those with a university degree believe the government deserves to be re-elected, compared with 36% who have some postsecondary education and 31% who only have a high school diploma or less.