THUNDER BAY – Ipsos Reid is reporting that “Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are continuing their decline in the polls, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. In a little over a year, the Liberals have squandered a 14-point lead over the Tories, and now trail them by 9 points”.
According to the polling numbers, if the provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would form the next provincial government, receiving 41% support among decided voters, up 5 points since August and 10 points since the summer of 2009.
By comparison, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals would be tossed out of government receiving 32% of the vote, down 3 points since the end of the summer and 13 points since the summer of 2009.
The NDP, led by Andrea Horwath, would garner 20% of the vote (up 2 points), while Mike Schreiner’s Green Party would be the choice of 7% of voters (down 4 points). One in ten (9%) voters remain undecided.
The news for the Liberals is not all bad, in Northern Ontario the Liberals are still ahead of the Progressive Conservatives.
The following are the vote breakdowns by region:
- In the GTA, the Tories (40%) lead, followed by the Liberals (33%), NDP (20%) and Green Party (7%).
- In Central Ontario, the Tories (44%) lead the Liberals (27%), NDP (22%) and Green Party (7%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the Tories (41%) and Liberals (41%) are tied for support, followed by the NDP (10%) and Green Party (8%).
- In South-western Ontario, the Tories (48%) have the most commanding lead over their counterparts. In fact, the NDP (24%) are in second place, followed by the Liberals (21%) and Green Party (7%).
- In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (41%) lead the NDP (29%), Tories (23%) and Green Party (7%).