Housing Starts Stable in Thunder Bay

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THUNDER BAY – Business – Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 315 units in June down from 318 units in May according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) 1 of housing starts. “Home building dipped slightly in June, as starts of single-detached units were behind last year’s pace in Thunder Bay. Meanwhile, row and apartment starts are performing well this year boosting year-to-date activity in 2013. CMHC’s forecast is to see similar starts levels this year compared to 2012,” stated Warren Philp, CMHC’s Market Analyst for Thunder Bay.

The Thunder Bay trend likely puts in focus the hot real estate market in Thunder Bay. 

It was a slightly different story in June in Sudbury. 

Housing starts in the Greater Sudbury, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 154 units in June compared to 198 in May according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.

“Despite continued declining trend for the first six months of the year, seasonally adjusted total starts in Greater Sudbury have picked up in June. Single-family homes dominated the construction activity in June indicating that most of the demand is coming from move up buyers, said Jawad Ahmad, CMHC’s Market Analyst for Sudbury.

Housing Stats Fairly Stable

Housing starts in Canada were trending at 184,514 units in June compared to 184,087 in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.

“As expected, the trend in total housing starts remained essentially stable in June, for a third consecutive month. This reflects general stability in regional trends over the same period. As a result, the trend in national housing activity remains close to its historical average and is in-line with estimates of household formation,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC. “In June, gains in housing starts in British Columbia were offset by declines in other regions of the country.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite volatile from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 199,586 units in June, a decrease from 204,616 in May. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.7 per cent in June to 177,085 units, as both the single and multiple urban starts segments declined in June. Specifically, single urban starts decreased by 4.1 per cent to 62,743 units in June while the multiple urban starts segment decreased by 2.0 per cent to 114,342 units.

June’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia. Urban starts decreased in all other regions, including Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec and the Prairies.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 22,501 units in June.

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