Entering the Winter Olympics break, the Toronto Maple Leafs sat just six points outside of the playoff picture. In an intensely competitive Eastern Conference, where the reigning champions were only eight points away from wild card place, this season, years of dominance have been flipped on their head for the Buds.
Six points can certainly be overcome on a hot run to finish the season, but there’s a case to be made that this Maple Leafs team simply wasn’t playoff-ready from the get-go. With the trade deadline coming in March, and NHL teams being very willing to trade big so far, is it already time for the Maple Leafs to look to next season?
Being Outscored While the Conference Flips Over
With the Tampa Bay Lightning returning to the top of the conference, the New York Islanders, Detroit Red Wings, Montréal Canadiens, and Buffalo Sabres looking like real postseason competitors, and the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins re-emerging as contenders, the conference has flipped.
Now, there’s a long way to go yet. This is why Betano has the Florida Panthers as the third-favourites to win the conference in the playoffs at +800, only trailing the +275 Carolina Hurricanes and +210 Bolts. However, the Maple Leafs, despite being ahead of the Panthers at the time of writing, were way out at +2400 to do so.
The simple fact for the Buds is that, in the offseason, they lost an immensely talented player who was covering up for roster frailties. While those frailties were exposed time and again in the playoffs, the Maple Leafs being outscored in the regular season for the first time since the 2015/16 season says it all.
For context, the very next season, both Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews made their NHL debuts. However, the Maple Leafs now find their roster in a kind of middle ground. Their core is in its prime – if not slightly past it in the case of the 35-year-old John Tavares – yet there isn’t currently cap wiggle room to bolster their abilities.
Call It a Day and Try Again Next Season?
Making cap space for next season and rolling the dice on some up-and-comers from the Marlies should be the goal for the Maple Leafs. Flip established pieces who will help true postseason contenders for picks and prospects to either retool from the pool up or flip those assets in the summer for NHL-ready improvements.
There were rumours reported by THW of the Buds trading 29-year-old top-six wing Bobby McMann to the Edmonton Oilers. McMann is on pace for a career season with 19 goals and 32 points – just two shy of last season’s record – so dealing him makes a lot of sense while he’s riding high.
However, he’s one of Toronto’s more cost-effective pieces. That will change in the summer, as he’ll become a UFA, but there’s a fair bit of bloat around where more value can be found for the salaries being paid. Matthew Knies isn’t exactly hitting the highs of a $7.75 million forward, while the blueline is stuck in a rut of no-movement clauses.
Easily the most pressing area of concern is in goal. It’s been a tough watch in net this season. Even with the potential of Joseph Woll, given the age of the team’s core, the Buds have to trade for a world-class netminder if they hope to challenge over the next few years. To do that, the team will first need to clear some cap space.
It’s quite the abnormality that a team would lose someone like Marner and yet also be heavily pressed up to the cap ceiling while also struggling to compete at the top end. Even so, that’s where the Buds find themselves. Moving on cap-cloggers, blooding-in some prospects, and planning a quick, efficient rebuild is now necessary.
