Thunder Bay Crime Rate Jumps 18 Per Cent as Crime Declines Nationally
THUNDER BAY — Thunder Bay moved sharply against the national trend in 2025, recording an 18 per cent increase in its police-reported crime rate while Canada’s overall rate declined.
For many in the city that does not come as a surprise. Crime is on the upswing, and often to many people the Thunder Bay Police are overwhelmed at times leading to longer response times.
Statistics Canada reported that the Thunder Bay census metropolitan area had a Crime Severity Index of 114.1 and a crime rate of 8,373 incidents per 100,000 people. Thunder Bay had the fourth-highest overall Crime Severity Index and the sixth-highest crime rate among the Canadian metropolitan areas included in the report.
Thunder Bay Records Largest Increase in Crime Rate
Thunder Bay’s crime rate rose 18 per cent between 2024 and 2025 — the largest increase reported among the census metropolitan areas listed by Statistics Canada.
The city’s overall Crime Severity Index increased three per cent. Nationally, the Crime Severity Index fell five per cent to 75.0, while the conventional crime rate declined two per cent to 5,585 incidents per 100,000 people.
Thunder Bay’s CSI was approximately 52 per cent higher than the national figure. Its conventional crime rate was nearly 50 per cent above the Canadian rate.
The gap was even larger compared with Ontario. The provincial CSI was 57.2, while Ontario’s crime rate was 4,296 incidents per 100,000 people.
Thunder Bay’s CSI was almost twice the provincial figure, and its crime rate was approximately 95 per cent higher.
How Thunder Bay Compares with Other Canadian Cities
Only three census metropolitan areas recorded a higher overall Crime Severity Index than Thunder Bay:
| Metropolitan area | 2025 CSI | Annual change | Crime rate per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chilliwack | 134.3 | Down 4 per cent | 11,455 |
| Kamloops | 126.2 | Down 4 per cent | 10,949 |
| Red Deer | 114.4 | Down 3 per cent | 10,592 |
| Thunder Bay | 114.1 | Up 3 per cent | 8,373 |
| Winnipeg | 113.4 | Down 9 per cent | 7,899 |
| Lethbridge | 107.7 | Up 2 per cent | 8,335 |
| Moncton | 105.6 | Up 11 per cent | 7,561 |
Chilliwack, Kamloops, Red Deer, Nanaimo and Kelowna had higher conventional crime rates than Thunder Bay. Lethbridge was slightly lower, at 8,335 incidents per 100,000 people, while Winnipeg reported 7,899.
Thunder Bay’s position is notable because most of the metropolitan areas near the top of the CSI ranking reported decreases. Chilliwack, Kamloops, Red Deer and Winnipeg all recorded lower Crime Severity Index values in 2025, while Thunder Bay’s increased.
Thunder Bay Has Highest CSI Among Ontario Metropolitan Areas
Thunder Bay had the highest overall Crime Severity Index and conventional crime rate among Ontario census metropolitan areas.
Brantford had Ontario’s next-highest CSI at 72.1, followed by Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo at 66.8, London at 66.0 and Greater Sudbury at 64.9.
Thunder Bay’s CSI of 114.1 was more than 42 points above Brantford’s figure.
The contrast was also clear when Thunder Bay was compared with Ontario’s largest urban centres:
| Ontario metropolitan area | 2025 CSI | Crime rate per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay | 114.1 | 8,373 |
| Greater Sudbury | 64.9 | 4,706 |
| London | 66.0 | 5,059 |
| Brantford | 72.1 | 5,381 |
| Toronto | 55.0 | 3,950 |
| Ottawa | 50.6 | 4,212 |
Toronto’s CSI fell seven per cent, while Ottawa’s declined six per cent. Greater Sudbury’s CSI decreased two per cent, although its conventional crime rate rose three per cent.
Why the Crime Rate and Crime Severity Index Tell Different Stories
The conventional crime rate measures the volume of Criminal Code incidents reported by police, excluding traffic offences. Each incident has the same effect on the rate, regardless of whether it involves minor theft or a serious violent offence.
The Crime Severity Index measures both volume and seriousness. Each offence is assigned a weight based largely on incarceration rates and the average length of sentences imposed by criminal courts. More serious offences therefore have a greater effect on the CSI. The index uses Canada’s 2006 crime level as its base value of 100.
Thunder Bay’s crime rate rose 18 per cent while its CSI increased by only three per cent.
That pattern suggests — but does not prove — that much of the growth may have occurred among higher-volume offences carrying lower CSI weights rather than an equivalent 18 per cent increase in the overall seriousness of crime.
National Crime Severity Declines for Second Year
Canada’s CSI declined for a second consecutive year in 2025 following an upward trend that began in 2015.
The national Violent Crime Severity Index declined four per cent to 97.2. The Non-violent Crime Severity Index fell five per cent to 66.8. Twenty-nine census metropolitan areas recorded lower overall CSI values.
Breaking and entering had the largest effect on the national decline. Police reported 109,753 incidents, representing a rate of 264 per 100,000 people — down 11 per cent from 2024 and 41 per cent from 2015.
The rate of motor vehicle theft declined 16 per cent, marking a second consecutive annual decrease. Fraud fell four per cent, while extortion declined 10 per cent.
Shoplifting moved in the opposite direction. Police reported 208,941 incidents of shoplifting valued at $5,000 or less, an increase of 11 per cent. The national shoplifting rate has risen for five consecutive years and was 79 per cent higher than in 2015.
National Homicide Rate Falls Sharply
Police reported 672 homicide victims across Canada in 2025, 125 fewer than in 2024.
The national homicide rate fell 16 per cent to 1.61 victims per 100,000 people, the lowest rate since 2014 and the largest annual percentage decline since 1986.
Statistics Canada reported that men and boys represented 74 per cent of homicide victims. Women and girls were more likely than male victims to have been killed by a spouse or intimate partner.
Gang-related homicides also declined and accounted for 18 per cent of homicides nationally. The number of gang-related homicides involving handguns fell substantially.
Indigenous People Remain Disproportionately Affected
The national decline did not eliminate longstanding disparities involving Indigenous victims.
Statistics Canada reported an Indigenous homicide victimization rate of 9.59 per 100,000 Indigenous people in 2025, approximately eight times the non-Indigenous rate of 1.13.
The national agency places those figures within the broader context of colonization, systemic discrimination, poverty and intergenerational trauma.
Those national figures are not a Thunder Bay-specific breakdown and should not be used to make assumptions about individual local cases.
However, the disparity remains important for Northwestern Ontario, where many First Nations continue to call for culturally appropriate victim services, community-based policing, safe housing, addictions treatment and improved access to mental-health care.
What the Results Mean for Thunder Bay
The report confirms that Thunder Bay’s police-reported crime levels remain substantially higher than the Ontario and Canadian averages.
The figures do not, on their own, explain why crime increased. The data cannot establish the individual effects of homelessness, toxic drugs, poverty, policing practices, court decisions, mental illness, organized crime or gaps in social services.
They do, however, provide a basis for asking more detailed questions:
Which offences drove the 18 per cent increase?
Did victimization become more concentrated in particular neighbourhoods or populations?
How many incidents involved repeat offenders or breaches of court orders?
Were reported offences connected to addictions, intimate partner violence or exploitation?
Are prevention, treatment, housing and victim-support programs reaching the people at greatest risk?
Answering those questions will require detailed local information from Thunder Bay Police Service, courts, health agencies, Indigenous organizations, social-service providers and community partners.
Statistics Require Careful Interpretation
Statistics Canada cautions that police-reported figures do not capture every crime. Some offences are never reported, while reporting rates can differ depending on the type of offence and public confidence in police.
Comparisons can also be affected by differences in police practices. Some services may deal with particular conduct through municipal bylaws or provincial laws rather than the Criminal Code.
Thunder Bay’s figures apply to its census metropolitan area, not solely to the municipal boundaries of the City of Thunder Bay.
A CMA can include neighbouring municipalities and more than one police jurisdiction, with boundaries adjusted for statistical comparisons.
Statistics Canada also cautions that smaller metropolitan areas can experience greater annual fluctuations. A relatively small change in the number or seriousness of incidents can have a larger effect on a smaller population than it would in Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver.
The Crime Severity Index should therefore be used with the conventional crime rate, detailed offence information, victimization surveys and local context — not as a stand-alone ranking of whether one community is universally “safe” or “dangerous.”
Key Findings
Thunder Bay’s 2025 results stand out in four ways:
The City’s crime rate increased 18 per cent, the largest rise among listed Canadian metropolitan areas;
Thunder Bay’s overall Crime Severity Index increased while the national and Ontario indexes declined;
Thunder Bay recorded the fourth-highest CSI among Canadian metropolitan areas; and
it had the highest CSI and conventional crime rate among Ontario metropolitan areas.
The next step for local decision-makers will be determining which offences drove the increase and whether existing policing, prevention, treatment, housing and victim-support strategies are responding to those patterns.
