Trade war fallout spreads from autos to forestry, threatening jobs across Ontario’s north

WINDSOR & THUNDER BAY — Once riding a wave of optimism thanks to electric vehicle investments, Windsor is now reeling from a steep downturn.

U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have cut 5,000 manufacturing jobs in just five months, pushing Windsor’s unemployment rate to the highest in Canada at 11.2 per cent.

That the uncertainty caused by Trump’s war on the world is seriously impacting American families and the economy of the United States doesn’t seem to phase Trump.

The automotive sector — the backbone of Windsor’s economy — is feeling the pain as production slows at Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors plants. Locals say uncertainty has gripped the city, with workers cutting back on spending and businesses bracing for more layoffs.

While Windsor’s crisis is rooted in auto tariffs, Northwestern Ontario is watching closely — because softwood lumber is next in the crosshairs.

Northwestern Ontario’s Lumber Towns in the Tariff Crossfire

In Thunder Bay, Dryden, Kenora, and Ignace, Red Lake, Atikokan and Nakina softwood lumber mills are a lifeline for local economies. Much like Windsor’s auto parts network, the forestry sector is deeply integrated with U.S. markets — roughly 80 per cent of Canadian softwood lumber exports head south.

Under the higher tariffs on Canadian lumber imposed by U.S. President Trump , the result could be mill slowdowns, reduced shifts, and potential shutdowns.

For communities already wrestling with high costs and a tight labour market, even a small dip in U.S. demand could have an outsized impact.

It’s the same story as Windsor’s auto plants — just a different product. You lose a market, you lose jobs, and in northern towns, that ripple effect hits everyone from truckers to grocery stores.

Trade Tensions Threaten More Than Just Jobs

During the last major softwood lumber dispute, Northwestern Ontario saw job losses in the hundreds, with some communities never fully recovering. This time, mills are facing not just tariffs but also higher operating costs from inflation and fuel prices.

The worry is that, like Windsor’s auto workers, forestry employees could find themselves 100 per cent at the mercy of others.

And while the federal government is pushing back diplomatically, there’s no guarantee the U.S. will relent — especially given the integrated nature of both the auto and forestry supply chains.

Local Resilience Tested Again

Northwestern Ontario has survived downturns before, from the collapse of the pulp and paper industry to the 2008 recession. But the stakes in this round of trade disputes are high.

As Windsor prepares for the symbolic opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge — even as trade tensions deepen — Thunder Bay and other northern towns are left wondering whether they’ll be celebrating the next big lumber shipment to the U.S., or fighting to keep mills running at all.