Despite Conservative gains nationwide, Pierre Poilievre suffers personal defeat in Ottawa-area riding
THUNDER BAY – POLITICS – It was a bittersweet night for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party. Despite national gains, Poilievre lost his Carleton seat to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy, ending his nearly 20-year tenure as a Member of Parliament.
At 4:43 a.m., preliminary results showed Fanjoy securing 50.6% of the vote (42,374 votes), compared to Poilievre’s 38,581. The defeat raises serious questions about Poilievre’s future leadership, even as he vowed to stay on after the Conservatives increased their seat count and achieved their highest national vote share since 1988.
“To my fellow Conservatives, we have much to celebrate. We’ve gained well over 20 seats and achieved a historic vote share,” Poilievre told supporters before final results were declared in his riding.
Historic Turnout and a Hotly Contested Riding
Carleton was the only Ottawa riding to see an incumbent MP defeated. Voter engagement was particularly strong: preliminary figures indicate a 79% turnout, with Carleton leading the nation in advance polling — nearly 44,000 ballots cast over Easter weekend.
The race in Carleton was further complicated by an unusual protest action. A total of 91 candidates appeared on the ballot, largely driven by the Longest Ballot Committee’s campaign advocating for electoral reform. Elections Canada reports that 90 of 91 candidates received votes.
Poilievre had previously dominated Carleton, winning 50% of the vote in 2021.
Liberals Secure Fourth Mandate Under New Leadership
The broader election narrative was equally dramatic. Mark Carney, a political newcomer and former Bank of England governor, led the Liberals to a minority government victory. Carney’s campaign heavily emphasized defending Canadian sovereignty against perceived threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who returned to power earlier this year.
Carney’s rhetoric resonated deeply with voters, warning that Trump sought to “break us so that America can own us.” This message galvanized Liberal support amid a global trend that has seen incumbent parties falter elsewhere.
“That will never ever happen,” Carney declared during his victory speech.
Carney also secured his personal seat in Nepean, further strengthening his leadership position.
A Trump Effect on Canadian Politics
Trump’s repeated provocations — including remarks about Canada joining the U.S. as a “cherished state” — played heavily into the Liberal campaign. Ironically, Trump’s actions may have undermined Conservative chances; a Poilievre-led government would likely have been ideologically closer to Trump’s own.
Both Poilievre and Trump share platforms favoring reduced government intervention, fossil fuel expansion, and opposition to progressive cultural movements. A Conservative victory would have reinforced the global rise of Trump-style populism — but Canadian voters chose a different path.
Challenges Ahead for Canada-U.S. Relations
Carney faces immediate diplomatic and economic challenges. With U.S. tariffs on Canadian auto exports looming (scheduled for May 3), the Canadian economy — heavily reliant on U.S. trade — could face recession risks. Carney, an economist and seasoned central banker, has pledged swift action to protect Canada’s interests.
Meanwhile, Trump’s antagonism toward Canada shows no signs of abating, suggesting rocky cross-border relations for the foreseeable future.
