Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives surge in Ontario, while NDP faces historic collapse and Singh loses seat
OTTAWA — April 29, 2025 — Election 2025 has delivered a dramatic reshaping of Canada’s political landscape, with voters electing a minority Liberal government under newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney. Despite strong Conservative gains across much of the country, particularly in Ontario, the Liberals managed to hold onto power — but without a majority mandate.
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, performed far better than many polls had predicted, gaining seats in key battlegrounds. However, in a stunning personal setback, Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton, finishing second — a symbolic blow that clouds the party’s otherwise strong showing.
Meanwhile, the election proved disastrous for the New Democratic Party. The NDP recorded its worst results in the party’s history, falling sharply in both vote share and seat count. Leader Jagmeet Singh also lost his seat in British Columbia, finishing a distant third, raising immediate questions about the future direction and leadership of the party.
A Liberal Minority — But No Clear Stability
The new Liberal government, led by former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, will now face the delicate challenge of governing with a fractured Parliament. Negotiations for confidence and supply agreements, or coalition partnerships will be critical in the coming weeks if Carney hopes to maintain stability.
Early signs suggest that while the Liberals hold enough seats to form a government, they will need support from smaller parties — or potentially a heavily weakened NDP — to pass key legislation.
Conservative Momentum, But Leadership Uncertainty
Despite the Conservatives’ impressive seat gains, Pierre Poilievre’s personal loss in Carleton has sparked immediate speculation about his leadership future. Traditionally, Canadian political leaders who fail to win their seats face immense internal pressure to step down, regardless of the party’s national performance.
While Poilievre plans to stay on, it is going to take one of his newly elected MPs to step aside to allow him to run in a by-election.
The Conservatives’ strong performance in Ontario signals a shift that could have longer-term consequences — particularly if a leadership change allows the party to build broader national appeal.
Historic Collapse for the NDP
For the New Democrats, Election 2025 marks an unprecedented electoral collapse. Losing long-held ridings, and particularly Singh’s personal defeat, will likely trigger an urgent leadership review and soul-searching within the party.
Observers suggest that the NDP struggled to differentiate its platform from the Liberals, and as cost-of-living concerns dominated the campaign, many traditional NDP voters appear to have shifted to the Liberals or stayed home.
The Final Word: The Voters Are Always Right
As always, in a democracy, the voters’ decision is final. While political leaders come and go, the electorate’s judgment remains sovereign — a reminder that, in the words often quoted on election nights, “The voters in their infinite wisdom are always right.”
