Election Analysis: What Happened in Thunder Bay Superior North?

Lise Vaugeois NDP
Lise Vaugeois NDP

THUNDER BAY – Politics – Lise Vaugeois is the newly elected New Democrat MPP in Thunder Bay-Superior North. The second time NDP candidate won by eight hundred votes topping second place Progressive Conservative candidate Peng You.

The voter turnout was 42.77 per cent. This is just under the provincial turnout.

Vaugeois ran in the 2018 provincial election and finished in second place to long-time Liberal MPP Michael Gravelle who garnered 11,973 votes. In 2018 Vaugeois lost by 813 votes. So in winning she erased the 800 vote loss and won by just over 800 votes.

Different story in 2022

In 2018 the voter turnout was 53.84 per cent of the 56,277 eligible voters. In 2022, 42.77 per cent of the 56,590 eligible voters cast their ballot.

The Liberal vote fell to 6,966 votes in 2022. The Progressive Conservative vote went up to 7,604 which is up from the 5,395 votes last election. In fact the Progressive Conservative vote in TBSN was larger than it has been since Thunder Bay-Superior North was created.

Thunder Bay-Superior North was, by 338Canada, considered a Liberal hold, and then leaning Liberal throughout the campaign. It was the Liberal’s riding to lose.

They did.

The New Democrats put forward a solid campaign but they too saw their total vote drop by 2,756 votes.

The only major party that saw its vote increase was the Progressive Conservatives.

The Green Party saw its vote fall from 838 votes to 738. The Green Party has a solid platform, but likely until the local riding association starts taking the hard work needed to reach voters seriously, there is likely to be no real change in their voter support.

The level of social media campaigning in TBSN was not on the same level as in Thunder Bay-Atikokan. Lots of memes and vertical phone videos, but nothing on the more documentary level for the Progressive Conservative campaign in the riding to the south.

Voter turnout was low across Ontario during this election. The truth is much of that falls on the opposition parties. Province-wide the voter turnout was 43.03 percent. Thunder Bay-Superior North was just under that total.

The New Democrat win has put in Thunder Bay ridings a candidate in the government and a candidate in the official opposition.

Now it will be up to the winners to work toward what is best for the city and region.


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