December 27, 2020 – NOAA Duluth Continues to Track Winter Storm

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Thunder Bay – WEATHER – The Weather Service in Duluth is continuing to track a potential winter storm that would affect the Northland later Tuesday into Wednesday.

“The main threat will be accumulating snow with blowing and drifting snow less of a concern for most areas. There remains uncertainty regarding the track and speed of the storm but the models were starting to converge on a solution,” says NOAA Duluth.

NOAA Duluth reports, “A broad upper level trough digging into the desert southwest shuttles an upper level jet over the Front Range of the Rockies to start the work week. Cyclogenesis will lead to a CO low moving out of the Central Plains with a northeast track towards the Great Lakes.

“An increased low level jet associated with this system will attempt to draw in the rich Gulf moisture and deposit it through the Midwest. The strongest synoptic forcing for this system is still placed over IA and southern MN where the higher probabilities of heavy precipitation are more favorable. Diagnosing the 00Z suite of model guidance reveals better agreement with snow entering from the southwest Tuesday afternoon/evening.

“The main plume of moisture is expected to move out of the region Wednesday night however, wrap around moisture from the exiting low will likely induce lingering flurries. Total snow accumulations are still in a bit of flux for the forecast but the ensemble guidance is starting to narrow the spread.

“The trend is showing a bit drier than the previous forecast with the spread in DLH around 2-5 inches. Slightly higher amounts for NW WI and lower amounts across the Arrowhead.”