NANOS SURVEY Shows Tight Polling Numbers in Ontario

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Leaders on the stage at the ValhallaTHUNDER BAY – If an election were called right now, over the budget, the following election would be a tight one. That is the findings suggested in the latest Nanos Survey. Nik Nanos states, “The McGuinty Liberals’ advantage in terms of public support over Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives shrank over the past month from 9.9 points to 3.3 points (35.4% versus 32.1% support, respectively). NDP support is at 26.5%, and the Greens are at six percent support (6.0%).

Nanos says, “In light of these results, it looks like things are in flux at Queen’s Park as we are moving closer to the budget vote”.

On the Nanos Leadership Index, McGuinty continues to lead with a fifteen point advantage over the other leaders. Importantly, both McGuinty and Hudak’ scores have slid over the past month (down 7.4 and 8.7 points, respectively), while NDP leader Andrea Horwath registered a score of 58.7 on the Index, up from 45.6 points in March 2012 – and a year-long high for Horwath.

Healthcare retained its place as Ontario’s top provincial issue at 26.5%, followed by the economy at 22.3%. Most notably, concern surrounding debt/deficit (12.6%) is on the rise, with a 3.4 point jump from March 2012.

Methodology: On April 14th and 15th, 2012, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 501 Ontarians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 501 Ontarians is accurate plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 421 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for March 5th, 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 500 Ontarians. A random telephone survey of 500 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Provincial Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for provincially, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from March 5th, 2012 (n=428).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Ontario (n=421 committed voters)

  • Liberal 35.4% (-4.5)
  • Progressive Conservative 32.1% (+2.1)
  • NDP 26.5% (+1.8)
  • Green 6.0% (+1.7)
  • *Undecided 16.0% (+1.5)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Dalton McGuinty is the leader of the Liberals, Tim Hudak is the leader of the Progressive Conservatives, Andrea Horwath is the leader of the NDP, and Mike Schreiner is the leader of the Green Party. Which of the provincial leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Ontario. (n=501)

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from March 5th, 2012 (n=500).

Leadership Index Score

  • Dalton McGuinty 73.3 (-7.4)
  • Andrea Horwath 58.7 (+13.1)
  • Tim Hudak 52.6 (-8.7)
  • Mike Schreiner 8.9 (+2.4)

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=501)

  • Dalton McGuinty 22.5% (-3.0)
  • Andrea Horwath 21.0% (+3.8)
  • Tim Hudak 16.0% (-3.5)
  • Mike Schreiner 3.6% (+1.2)
  • Unsure 17.1% (-3.1)
  • None 19.9% (+4.7)

The Most Competent Leader (n=501)

  • Dalton McGuinty 27.9% (-1.9)
  • Andrea Horwath 18.5% (+5.1)
  • Tim Hudak 17.7% (-2.9)
  • Mike Schreiner 2.5% (+1.4)
  • Unsure 19.1% (-4.1)
  • None 14.3% (+2.4)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=501)

  • Dalton McGuinty 22.9% (-2.5)
  • Andrea Horwath 19.2% (+4.2)
  • Tim Hudak 18.9% (-2.3)
  • Mike Schreiner 2.8% (-0.2)
  • Unsure 20.4% (-4.2)
  • None 15.8% (+5.0)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important PROVINCIAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] (n=501)

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from March 5th, 2012 (n=500).

  • Healthcare 26.5% (-1.7)
  • Jobs/economy 22.3% (+0.3)
  • Debt/deficit 12.6% (+3.4)
  • Education 9.4% (-0.2)
  • High taxes 6.8% (-0.6)
  • The environment 3.5% (+0.8)
  • Unsure 11.4% (-1.1)
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