Federal Conservatives Climbing in Support


THUNDER BAY – The month of April has seen the federal Liberals on the attack against the Conservative Government. The results of that effort appear to have impacted on the political polling.

The latest Nanos tracking shows that the federal Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals outside of the margin of error for the research. The research suggests that a politically tumultuous April, which featured the Guergis affair, Culture War allegations and focus on Afghan detainee transparency has not had a negative effect on Conservative support.

The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and are statistically tied with Liberals in Ontario and British Columbia, while the Bloc Quebecois leads in Quebec.

Of note, pockets of polarization related to ballot preference may be emerging. Through the tumultuous April, the Conservatives widened their lead over the Liberals in the Prairies, while the Bloc Quebecois picked up support in Quebec.

The percentage of undecided voters in the latest Nanos tracking hit 22% which should be considered high. Of strategic importance, Quebecers were the most likely to be undecided at about one in four voters.

Many times, increases in the number of undecided voters correlates with negative campaigning and political mudslinging. The more negative the political discourse, the greater the likelihood that voters park in the undecided category.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference Reported)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between March 6th and March 12th.

National Committed Voters Only (n=780)
Conservative 37.2% (+2.5)
Liberal 33.2% (-1.4)
NDP 16.2% (-1.6)
BQ 9.6% (+1.9)
Green 3.8% (-1.4)

Note: Undecided 22.2% (+2.6) of total voters surveyed.

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