Poll Shows Conservatives Lead Ontario Race

Ipsos Poll for Ontario Political Race May 10 2014
Ipsos Poll for Ontario Political Race May 10 2014

Ipsos Poll for Ontario Political Race May 10 2014
Ipsos Poll for Ontario Political Race May 10 2014

Toronto, ON – The latest poll, taken before the announcement by Tim Hudak to reduce the civil service by 100,000 positions is showing that the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have the lead. In Northern Ontario, although the sample size is small, it is the New Democrats who are well ahead.

Ipsos Reid reports, “With the writ officially dropped and the election campaign underway, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CTV News and CP24 has revealed that the desire for change in Ontario is strengthening and that Tim Hudak’s image as a potential premier for the province has also strengthened”.

The poll also shows that the Tories have maintained their lead over the Liberals and the NDP, and that Tory voters are most likely to show up on Election Day and least likely to change their vote before Election Day.

If the election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters in Ontario would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party under Tim Hudak, unchanged since April. The Liberal Party under Premier Wynne would receive 31% of the vote (down 1 point), while the NDP under Andrea Horwath would receive 28% of the vote (up 1 point). Other parties, including the Mike Schreiner’s Green Party, would receive 4% of the vote (down 1 point). Nearly two in ten (16%) Ontarians overall remain undecided.

Opinions in the key regions of the province have remained relatively stable as well:

In the 905 region of the GTA, 45% would vote PC compared to 29% who would vote Liberal and 23% NDP. Just 3% would vote for some other party.

In the 416 region, Toronto Proper, the Liberals (45%) hold a lead over the PCs (26%) and the NDP (23%), with other parties trailing (6%).

In Southwest Ontario, the NDP (38%) and PCs (36%) are ahead of the Liberals (22%) and other parties (4%).

In Central Ontario, the PCs (39%) hold a lead over the Liberals (31%), NDP (26%) and other parties (4%).

In the North, the NDP (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (27%), Liberals (20%), and other parties (8%).

In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (50%) have a solid lead over the Liberals (34%) and NDP (16%).

PC Voters Most Likely to Show Up to Vote…

Consistent with April’s poll, the results of this new poll show that Tory supporters are most likely to show up and vote on Election Day. Among the 52% who say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency would stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’, 42% would vote for the PC Party, while 28% would vote Liberal and 27% would vote for the NDP. This once again shows that Tory voters are most motivated, while the Liberal vote is anemic.

PC Voters Most Committed to Party…

Not only are PC voters most likely to show up and vote, they’re also the most loyal to their party. A majority (54%) of PC voters say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ that they will vote PC on Election Day. This compares to 37% of Liberal voters who are ‘absolutely certain’ of their vote choice, and 34% of NDP voters who are ‘absolutely certain’.

Conversely, NDP voters are most tentative with their vote choice, with 23% indicating they’re ‘not certain’ (5% not at all/18% not very) that they’ll stick with the NDP, compared to 13% of Liberals who are not certain (4% not at all/10% not very) they’ll vote for the Grits, and 16% of PC voters (4% not at all/11% not very) who aren’t sure they’ll vote for the Tories.

The Building Tide of Change…

The data reveal a growing desire for change in Ontario. Nearly three quarters (72%, up 4 points) of Ontarians believe that it is ‘time for another party to take over’, while just 28% think that ‘the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election’, down 4 points.

Further, just 36% of Ontarians believe ‘Ontario is currently on the right track’, down 6 points), while two in three (64%) believe it is ‘headed in the wrong direction’, up 6 points.

Hudak’s Image as Potential Premier Strengthens…

For as long as he’s been leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, Tim Hudak has generally polled below his party’s support levels. While this continues to be the case, he has taken a modest lead over the other party leaders as the person who they think would make the best Premier of Ontario. One in three (34%) believe Tim Hudak would make the best Premier, up 2 points), compared to 29% who believe Andrea Horwath would be the best Premier (up 1 point), and 28% who believe Premier Wynne would be the best Premier for the province (down 3 points). One in ten (9%) believe Mike Schreiner would make the best Premier (unchanged).