Maple Leafs Snapshot: A Slide at the Worst Time

THUNDER BAY – Sports – The Toronto Maple Leafs close out January in a tough spot: 24-21-9 (57 points) and riding a six-game skid (0-5-1) after a 5-2 loss in Seattle.

That slump has widened the gap in the Eastern playoff race. In the Wild Card standings, Montreal and Boston sit on 67 points, leaving Toronto 10 points back of the second Wild Card position at the end of January.

Where Toronto Stands in the East

Toronto’s points total still keeps them within sight, but the math is getting brutal with 28 games left (54 played).

One key stretch summed it up: the Leafs finished an 0-4-1 homestand with a 7-4 loss to Buffalo, and were described as eight points back in the conference chase at that moment — a hole that’s only felt deeper since the losing streak continued.

What’s Driving the Drop: Goals Aren’t the Only Problem

Even with star power, Toronto hasn’t been clean enough in the details that win games in January.

Coach Craig Berube has been blunt about it, pointing to play away from the puck: it’s not just about scoring — it’s about playing the full rink.

And the team stats show why the margins are thin:

• Goals For/Against: 176 GF, 187 GA (goal differential -11)

• Power play: 17.6%

• Penalty kill: 83.5%

For a roster built to outscore problems, that mix doesn’t leave much room when the bounces go the other way.

Health Check: Nylander Getting Close

A needed boost may be coming: William Nylander has been out with a groin injury, but skated and was described as close to returning (potentially as soon as the Vancouver game). Nylander also leads Toronto with 48 points (17G, 31A) in 37 games.

So… Is 2026 the Year?

If we’re talking Spring 2026 (this season), the honest answer is: it’s possible, but it’s slipping toward “long shot” territory.

Some models already reflect that:

• PlayoffStatus lists Toronto at about 5% to reach Round 1 as of late January.

• Hockey-Reference’s simulations (as captured in its playoff probabilities report) peg Toronto around ~9.9% to make the playoffs.

That doesn’t mean “done.” It means the Leafs likely need a heater — not a mild turnaround — plus help from teams ahead of them.

If you’re Leafs Nation asking “Is 2026 the year?” the more realistic framing might be:

• First goal: get back into the playoff picture before the final month.

• Second goal: prove they can win the tight, low-mistake games Berube keeps talking about.

• Otherwise: it starts looking like another “wait till next year” conversation — again.

Thunder Bay Angle: Why This Matters in Northwestern Ontario

In Thunder Bay and across the region, Leafs games are often the nightly sports soundtrack — and this stretch matters because the schedule is about to test fans’ patience and the team’s maturity at the same time: a Western swing with late puck drops, followed by the Olympic break approaching.

For Northwestern Ontario viewers, the next couple weeks are a simple gut-check: do the Leafs look like a team chasing, or a team collapsing?