THUNDER BAY – Business – Well, here we go again. The Trump Administration is slapping more tariffs on imports from Canada. This time it is on the forest sector, and despite the reality is it going to harm both the Canadian economy and the American consumer, the President is pushing ahead.
Washington’s new 10% tariff on timber and lumber and 25% duty on cabinets and upholstered wood furniture push combined charges on many Canadian shipments above 45%. Industry, labour, and municipal leaders say the move will raise U.S. housing costs, destabilize integrated North American supply chains, and threaten jobs across Northern Ontario.
What Trump Just Did—and Why It Matters
The Trump White House has invoked Section 232 (national security) to impose a 10% tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber and 25% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered wood furniture, effective October 14, 2025. The proclamation warns rates could climb on January 1, 2026 (to 30% on furniture and 50% on cabinets) absent deals with exporting countries.
Canada—America’s top lumber supplier—already faces combined anti-dumping and countervailing duties that average ~35% for many producers; the new 10% Section 232 tariff pushes all-in duty costs above 45% for much of the trade.
The Trump Administration frames the action as essential to national security and industrial capacity. Business groups and housing advocates counter it will raise building costs and reduce supply when the U.S. is short on lumber. Early market reaction saw homebuilder shares dip and futures prices jump.
So critics suggest that this is the latest move from the Trump Presidency to again divert attention from the growing efforts demanding him to release the Epstein files.
Canada’s Forest Sector: “Unjustified and Harmful”
In a statement, the Forest Products Association of Canada (FPAC) called the move “unjustified,” stressing Canadian wood has never posed a national security threat and that the tariffs will raise U.S. housing costs and strain an integrated supply chain spanning harvesting, milling, transport, and manufacturing. FPAC notes that with existing AD/CVD, the new 232 duties lift total charges above 45% for many producers.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Lumber Coalition applauded the step and urged continued strict enforcement, underscoring how contested—and politicized—softwood remains.
Ontario & the North: “A Direct Hit to Families, Workers, and Towns”
A joint statement from Ontario municipal and business leaders warns the new tariffs threaten the province’s forest-based economy and put communities at risk:
-
Danny Whalen (FONOM): “Ontario’s strength is built on a thriving forestry sector. Every new tariff is a direct hit to our families, our workers, and our municipalities.”
-
Rick Dumas (NOMA): The move is a “significant setback” that “threatens the future of our communities.”
-
Charla Robinson (Thunder Bay Chamber): Tariffs will harm businesses on both sides of the border, disrupt trade, and create uncertainty for workers and families.
-
Jason Laco (USW Local 1-2010) and Stephen Boon (Unifor): Call for governments to stabilize the sector and negotiate a fair settlement with the U.S.
-
Ian Dunn (OFIA): Labels the action an “abuse of Presidential power” that will raise U.S. consumer costs; urges Queen’s Park to defend jobs and pursue all legal avenues.
For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, these tariffs land atop cost pressures, mill curtailments, and the ongoing need to keep chips, sawdust, and biomass flowing between sawmills and paper mills. Local logistics, maintenance, and fabrication shops that service mills across Highway 11/17 can expect order volatility and tight working capital as exporters absorb higher border charges.
How We Got Here: From AD/CVD to 232
-
Softwood AD/CVD cycle: In late July–August 2025, the U.S. finalized sixth administrative review duty rates. The Government of Canada’s tracker shows “all-others” combined rates around 35%, with some firms higher.
-
Section 232 overlay: The new 10% 232 tariff on lumber and 25% on certain derivative wood products stacks on top of AD/CVD, lifting many shipments’ total duties north of 45%.
-
Tariff ladders ahead: Absent deals, January 1, 2026 increases kick in (furniture to 30%, cabinets to 50%).
The Housing Equation: Who Pays?
The U.S. imports roughly one-third of the lumber it consumes and cannot meet demand domestically, according to U.S. homebuilders. The National Association of Home Builders estimates the new tariffs add costs for new builds and renovations, compounding affordability challenges. Analysts estimate the policy could tack ~US$1,000 onto the cost of a typical home, though large builders may absorb some impact via scale.
Bottom line for consumers: Higher tariffs tend to pass through in price, or suppress supply—either way, expect tighter inventories and higher costs on both raw lumber and finished products like cabinets and furniture.
What Ottawa Can Do Next
-
Negotiate carve-outs / rate caps: The proclamation hints at reduced or capped rates for certain partners; prior reporting suggests caps in the 10–15% range for countries with recent trade deals. Canada’s next step is to test those pathways aggressively.
-
Align relief with the front line: Any federal/provincial support should stabilize cash flow for exporters (financing for duty deposits), protect the residue loop that keeps sawmills and paper mills running, and scale training funds for affected workers.
-
Legal avenues: Expect challenges via CUSMA consultations and potentially WTO dispute mechanisms—while recognizing timelines are long and remedies uncertain. (Canada has already documented its view that Canadian imports do not impair U.S. national security under 232.)
-
Countermeasures: Ottawa has used retaliatory tariffs in other sectors this year; decisions now must weigh deterrence against consumer and business impacts at home.
What to Watch in Northwestern Ontario
-
Mill operating plans: Any curtailments tied to U.S. order softness or cash tied up in duty deposits.
-
Cross-border logistics: Delays or re-routing as firms reassess FOB vs. delivered terms and brokerage costs.
-
Secondary manufacturers: Cabinet shops, furniture makers, and remanufacturers facing component price spikes.
-
Municipal finances: Exposure where industrial tax bases are concentrated in forestry.
-
Workforce stability: Uptake of provincial/federal re-employment and training supports if layoffs materialize.
Voices from the Forest Sector
“Imposing further tariffs on Canadian lumber will hurt American families trying to build, renovate, or upgrade their homes… Expanding the scope to furniture and kitchen cabinetry is reckless.” — Derek Nighbor, FPAC Forest Products Association of Canada
“Every new tariff is a direct hit to our families, our workers, and our municipalities.” — Danny Whalen, FONOM ofia.com
“We need a settlement… so that Canadian producers and forestry workers can get back to producing the lumber and wood products that are needed.” — Stephen Boon, Unifor lumberbluebook.com
The Path to De-Escalation
A durable fix still looks like negotiated certainty: predictable duty rates (or quotas) paired with clear rules on provincial forest tenure and pricing, and a time-bound roadmap to unwind extraordinary 232 measures. Prolonging the fight risks higher U.S. housing costs, lost Canadian capacity, and permanent supply-chain rerouting—outcomes neither country can afford.
