Thunder Bay Among Canada’s Highest‑Rate Crime CMAs, Led by Violent Offences

Thunder Bay – NEWS – The latest report from Statistics Canada puts Thunder Bay atop a list, that while many citizens and frontline police officers knew all along without the documentation. That list is Canada’s Crime Severity rankings.

Thunder Bay saw an increase since the last report a year ago of 8.09 per cent.

With soaring violent crime and leading property crime rates, Thunder Bay ranks among North America’s most dangerous mid-sized cities

Thunder Bay has once again made national headlines, not for its natural beauty or boreal significance—but for crime.

Thunder Bay and Winnipeg: Among the Top Fifth for Violent Crime in North America

When comparing urban centres across both Canada and the United States, Thunder Bay and Winnipeg stand out as the only Canadian cities to rank in the top 20% for violent crime rates. According to the Fraser Institute’s 2025 cross-border analysis, Thunder Bay recorded 546.1 violent incidents per 100,000 residents, while Winnipeg topped the Canadian list with 675.1 per 100,000.

This high ranking places both cities ahead of many major U.S. metros traditionally associated with higher crime levels, including parts of Texas and the Midwest.

The contrast is particularly sharp when compared to Canada’s largest cities:

• Vancouver ranked 214th with 257 violent crimes per 100,000

• Montreal came in at 229th with 238 per 100,000

• Toronto placed 261st, reporting just 203 per 100,000

These numbers challenge common perceptions about crime being more severe in larger metropolitan centres, instead highlighting the disproportionate burden of violent crime in mid-sized cities like Thunder Bay.

At the opposite end of the scale, St. Catharines-Niagara, Guelph, and Barrie in Ontario, along with Quebec City and Sherbrooke, reported some of the lowest violent crime rates across both countries.

According to the latest 2024 Crime Severity Index (CSI) released by Statistics Canada, and corroborated by a detailed Fraser Institute report by Livio De Mateo an economist from Lakehead University, on North American urban crime trends, the city stands at the epicenter of a growing crisis in violent and property crime.

Thunder Bay ranks 2nd in Canada for violent crime, leads Ontario in property crime, CSI jumps 8%

Statistically, Thunder Bay is now Ontario’s crime capital—and by some measures, it is among Canada’s most dangerous cities.

A Surge in Crime Severity

CSI climbs as national trends decline

Statistics Canada’s 2024 data places Thunder Bay’s overall Crime Severity Index at 107.7, ranking 6th highest among Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). While Canada’s national CSI decreased by over 4%, Thunder Bay’s index rose by more than 8% year-over-year, indicating a concerning divergence from broader national trends.

Notably, Thunder Bay’s violent CSI is more than double the national average, reflecting a spike in serious offences like:

• Aggravated assault

• Criminal harassment

• Sexual assault

• Forcible confinement

Despite a decrease in homicides—from 8 in 2022 to 4 in 2023—Thunder Bay still held Canada’s highest homicide rate in 2023 at 5.39 per 100,000, surpassing larger cities such as Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Vancouver.

The Dual Crisis: Property Crime Tops Ontario

Break-ins, vehicle thefts, and shoplifting on the rise

Thunder Bay leads Ontario in property crime, with substantial increases in:

• Break and enter cases

• Vehicle thefts

• Retail theft

• Vandalism

Although Western cities like Kelowna and Regina still post higher absolute rates, Thunder Bay’s property crime index now outpaces all other cities in Ontario.

This contributes to the community’s growing concerns about public safety, economic impact, and the city’s reputation as a livable hub in Northwestern Ontario.

For many people calling the police on vehicle break-ins and property crime has become viewed as pointless. People in their frustration are posting images on social media, and seeking to inform others.

Why Is This Happening?

A toxic mix of addiction, homelessness, and systemic under investment

Thunder Bay Police and social agencies point to multiple overlapping drivers:

• Substance use and the toxic drug supply

• Homelessness and housing insecurity

• Mental health system overload

• Intergenerational trauma and systemic racism, especially affecting Indigenous populations

Thunder Bay’s role as a regional service center compounds these challenges: it draws vulnerable populations from remote communities across Northern Ontario, but lacks the infrastructure to meet their needs.

Thunder Bay Police Service (TBPS) has acknowledge that traditional enforcement alone cannot solve these issues. Deputy Chief Dan Taddeo stated that “crime statistics don’t surprise us anymore—they reflect a failure of systems that go beyond policing.”

Thunder Bay Police continue to face issues stemming from the Broken Trust report. Many Indigenous people in the city simply do not trust the police. That makes for difficult realities, Indigenous people, in particular the most vulnerable won’t report crime.

Community and Political Response

Calls for integrated solutions grow louder

Local advocates, Indigenous leaders, and city councillors are pushing for:

• Increased funding for addictions and mental health services

• Supportive and transitional housing

• Harm-reduction programs

• Diversion programs and restorative justice models

Meanwhile, the Thunder Bay Police Service is being challenged to improve its relationships with racialized and Indigenous communities, rebuild public trust, and better align with trauma-informed practices.

Regional Repercussions: Impact Across Northwestern Ontario

A regional lens on Thunder Bay’s crime crisis

Thunder Bay is the economic and medical hub of Northwestern Ontario. Rising crime affects not only local residents but also those traveling from Kenora, Sioux Lookout, Nipigon, and Greenstone for health care, court services, or shopping.

Concerns are growing about:

• Deterrence of investment and tourism

• Safety for post-secondary students at Lakehead University and Confederation College

• Stress on regional emergency services and shelters

If unaddressed, Thunder Bay’s crime reputation may widen disparities in an already underserved part of the province.

Moving Forward: A Roadmap for Recovery

The data is clear—now what?

Both the CSI and Fraser Institute data signal a city in crisis, but also provide a roadmap for action. A multi-sectoral approach is urgently needed, integrating:

• Public health

• Indigenous-led healing

• Housing-first policy

• Data-driven policing reforms

Thunder Bay must work to shift the narrative—from a crime capital to a resilient regional centre that is tackling root causes head-on.

This report should be the impetus for a complete focus by City Officials.