After Crombie’s 57% and resignation, NDP delegates give Stiles a slimmer-than-hoped mandate and a to-do list focused on jobs, affordability and rebuilding outside Toronto
NIAGARA FALLS / THUNDER BAY — Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles has survived her mandatory leadership review with 68% support from delegates at the party’s Niagara Falls convention — stronger than the 57% that pushed Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie to resign last weekend, but shy of the 75% many New Democrats privately hoped to see.
Stiles told members she’ll stay on and “make change in this party” after the NDP’s disappointing showing in the Feb. 27, 2025 election that handed Premier Doug Ford a third straight PC majority. The PCs won 80 seats with ~43% of the vote, while the NDP held Official Opposition with a weaker 18.6% province-wide.
For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario readers, the stakes are concrete: the NDP kept Thunder Bay—Superior North (Lise Vaugeois) while the PCs re-elected Kevin Holland in Thunder Bay—Atikokan — a split that mirrors the province’s broader map and raises strategic questions for Stiles in Northern ridings the party must defend and grow.
The Northern Lens: What Changes Could Mean Here
1) Candidate + ground game in the Northwest
The NDP’s “vote-efficient” map preserved seats like Thunder Bay—Superior North, but a smaller popular vote means less momentum — and, crucially, less per-vote public allowance than if the party’s share had grown. Ontario extended the quarterly allowance through 2026, and payouts are tied to votes received, so rebuilding the popular vote matters for on-the-ground organizing in the North.
2) Jobs + affordability must meet Northern realities
Ontario’s unemployment rate sits at 7.7% (August), but Thunder Bay’s is closer to ~5%, underscoring a different local labour picture: tighter hiring in health, trades and public services, alongside cost-of-living pressures. Expect the NDP to tailor Northern messaging on skills, housing supply, and health care access rather than a one-size-fits-all “jobs crisis.”
3) Health care + travel costs resonate
From nurse retention to medical travel, Northern voters have distinct priorities. Stiles’ promised “sweeping changes” need visible policy detail here — e.g., incentives for rural/remote placements, Northern fuel/power affordability, and faster capital upgrades for regional hospitals/clinics. (The party signalled a reset; concrete timelines and dollar figures should follow to convince Northwestern Ontario voters.)
The Political Weather: PCs Up, NDP Lagging
Fresh polling since the election shows the PCs near record support (~53%), with the NDP slipping to the low teens — a warning sign that Stiles’ post-review reboot must land quickly to hold Northern seats and compete for places like Kenora–Rainy River or Sault Ste. Marie.
What NetNewsLedger Readers Should Watch Next
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Policy specifics from the NDP on Northern health care staffing, housing starts and industrial strategy (forestry, mining, and value-added processing).
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Local organizing capacity heading into municipal/provincial cycles — funding and volunteers flow from party momentum and per-vote dollars.
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Thunder Bay seat math: Can the NDP grow beyond its Thunder Bay—Superior North fortress, or do the PCs consolidate Thunder Bay—Atikokan again?
Bottom Line
Marit Stiles lives to fight another day — but a 68% pass comes with strings attached. In Northwestern Ontario, where the NDP both depends on and defends key seats, the party’s promised overhaul must show up as specific, funded, Northern-focused policy — or risk ceding more ground to Ford’s ascendant PCs.
