Key Market Predictions and Economic Outlook
THUNDER BAY – BUSINESS – Royal LePage predicts a national aggregate home price increase of 5.5% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2024. This forecast anticipates notable price hikes in major markets, with Calgary leading at an 8.0% rise, followed by Toronto and Montreal at 6.0% and 5.0%, respectively. Greater Vancouver is projected to see a 3.0% increase.
Market Insights and Predictions
- Single-family detached homes are expected to witness a 6.0% increase, while condominiums are forecasted to rise by 5.0%.
- The latter half of 2024 is projected to experience the most significant price surges.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain steady rates in the first half of 2024, followed by modest rate reductions in late summer or fall.
Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, on Market Dynamics
Phil Soper emphasizes that 2024 will be a pivotal year for the national economy, marking the end of ultra-low interest rates. He anticipates a ‘great adjustment’ to mid-single-digit borrowing costs, impacting market dynamics. Soper also predicts increased housing activity, driven by first-time buyers and families seeking property upgrades.
Regional Highlights and Trends
- Calgary’s robust market is set to lead in gains, continuing its upward price trajectory.
- Toronto and Montreal expect growth rates of 6.0% and 5.0%, driven by sustained demand and economic factors.
- Greater Vancouver’s modest increase reflects a balanced market response to economic conditions.
Housing Supply and Affordability Challenges
Canada’s chronic housing supply shortage remains a pressing issue, with a significant gap between construction pace and demand. Condominiums, once an affordable entry point, now face supply and affordability challenges in major cities.
Public Policy and Economic Factors
Recent government initiatives aim to address housing affordability and supply issues. However, these efforts face challenges in balancing competing policy objectives, such as high immigration rates and housing construction demands.
Royal LePage’s Comprehensive Market Forecast
The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast offers a detailed outlook for various Canadian markets, considering factors like housing supply, regional economic trends, and public policy impacts.
As 2024 approaches, the Canadian real estate market is poised for significant changes, influenced by economic adjustments, supply challenges, and evolving buyer sentiments. Royal LePage’s forecast provides a comprehensive overview of these dynamics, offering valuable insights for stakeholders in the Canadian housing market.