Conference Board of Canada Predicts Economic Slowdown into 2024, with Slight Recovery in 2025


Canadian Cities Face Economic Challenges as High Costs Curb Growth

The economic landscape for Canadian cities in 2023 presents a challenging picture. The Conference Board of Canada’s latest research indicates that higher interest rates and persistent inflation are eroding consumer purchasing power, leading to slower growth across various cities.

Edmonton’s Economy Outshines Despite Slowdown

In 2023, Edmonton’s real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.9%, still the highest among major Canadian cities. This is partly due to the improved oil prices benefiting Alberta’s economy. However, the growth rate is anticipated to fall to 1.8% in 2024.

Saskatchewan’s Resource Demand Strong but Saskatoon Faces Declines

Despite robust global demand for Saskatchewan’s resources, Saskatoon will see a GDP growth of only 2.8% in 2023 due to declining commodity prices. This represents a decrease from previous years but remains above the provincial average.

Winnipeg’s Manufacturing and Transportation Sectors to Grow

Winnipeg is set to witness expansion in its manufacturing sector, thanks to a new bus contract and supply chain improvements. Nonetheless, the city anticipates a slight economic slowdown, with GDP growing by 2.7% in 2023.

London’s Spending Confidence Faces Interest Rate Challenges

London’s tight labor market and consumer savings have kept spending on services robust. However, rising interest rates are starting to impact the economy, with GDP growth expected to slow down in the coming years.

Moncton’s Employment Surge Amid Consumer Spending Cool-Off

Moncton will experience a surge in employment, especially in goods-producing industries. Despite this, the slowdown in consumer spending is expected to cause job losses in some sectors, impacting the city’s economic growth.

Windsor’s Positive Outlook Amidst Rising Unemployment

Despite the likelihood of increased unemployment due to high interest rates, Windsor’s economy is expected to grow, thanks to significant investments in the city.

Calgary Boosted by Housing Demand and Employment Prospects

Calgary’s economy will benefit from strong local housing demand and employment prospects, leading to steady GDP growth in the next two years.

Thunder Bay’s Major Projects Spur Economic Growth

The $1.2 billion jail project in Thunder Bay is anticipated to boost local employment and contribute to the city’s economic expansion.

Regina’s Growth Limited by Mixed Resource Conditions

Regina will face limited growth due to mixed conditions in Saskatchewan’s resource sector, affecting commodity prices and overall economic health.

Oshawa’s Manufacturing Sector Set for Expansion

Investments in Oshawa’s manufacturing sector, particularly in the GM plant, are expected to drive economic growth in the next two years.

Halifax’s Goods Sector Drag on Economic Growth

Halifax will experience slower economic growth due to declining demand for goods, both domestically and internationally.

St. Catharines-Niagara’s Service Sector Shields from Downturn

Despite labor shortages, the heavy reliance on the services sector in the St. Catharines-Niagara region will help mitigate the impacts of the economic slowdown.

Kingston’s Economic Growth Hindered by Consumer Power Decline

Kingston will see limited economic growth due to declining consumer purchasing power and elevated business borrowing costs.

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo’s Limited Growth Amid Recession Threat

Despite anticipated employment gains, the threat of a recession will limit economic growth in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo.

Toronto’s Manufacturing Sector Faces Cooling Demand

Cooling domestic and international demand will dampen growth in Toronto’s manufacturing sector, impacting the city’s overall economic performance.

Guelph’s Employment Growth Slows Amid Rising Unemployment

Guelph will see a deceleration in employment growth, leading to increased unemployment rates in the region.

Montreal’s Real Estate and Manufacturing Sectors Slow Down

Montreal faces challenges in its key sectors – finance, insurance, real estate, and manufacturing – due to high prices and interest rates, leading to slower economic growth.

Ottawa-Gatineau’s Modest Growth Despite High Incomes

Ottawa-Gatineau’s relative high income levels will not prevent a slowdown in GDP growth, with modest increases expected in the next two years.

Vancouver’s Retail Trade Sector Impacted by Spending Cuts

Vancouver will see a modest increase in its GDP, mainly driven by growth in the services-producing industry, despite challenges in the retail trade sector.

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