Voting Intentions Favour Liberals – But Frustration is Climbing

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TORONTO – POLITICS – David Coletto of Abacus Data states that the company has completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from February 4 to 8, 2022.

Here’s a snapshot of the findings:

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

  • The mood of the country has soured further since our last wave of research roughly a month ago. Today, 34% feel the country is headed in the right direction (down 8 over two months and the lowest since April 2021) while 50% think it’s on the wrong track, up 7.
  • Approval of the federal government has dropped from 44% a month ago to 38% this month and disapproval has risen from 40% to 45%.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

  • Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 36% and negative impressions among 46%, for a net score of – 10, compared to his net score of -2 a month ago.
  • Today 17% have a positive impression of Interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen while her negatives are at 28% for a net score of -11. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.
  • Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 41% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net score of +16, similar to our results last month.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (their 2021 election result), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower than their share in the election and down two from earlier this month), and the NDP 19% (1-point higher than the 2021 result). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 6% and the Greens at 3%.

Intention by province:

  • BC: Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives at 30% and the NDP at 24%.
  • Alberta: 54% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 14% for the Liberal Party, and 8% for the People’s Party.
  • Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 21% and the People’s Party at 11%.
  • Ontario: The Liberals have a 4-point lead over the Conservatives (36% to 32%) with the NDP in third at 20%. The People’s Party is polling at 8% in Ontario.
  • Quebec: We see the BQ ahead of the Liberals (37% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 16%, the NDP at 12%.
  • Atlantic: The Liberals lead with 41% compared with 23% for the NDP, 23% for the Conservatives, and 7% for the People’s Party.
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