Shift in the Polls sees Liberals Regain Lead

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Election 2021 Splash

Thunder Bay – Election 2021 – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 33.2 per cent, the Conservatives at 32.5 per cent, the NDP at 19.2 per cent, the Greens at 4.6 per cent, the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 3.3 per cent. The BQ was at 28.4% in Quebec. [Also of note, exclusive of the decided respondents, from the total sample, 12.6% of Canadians were unsure in their vote.]

Abacus Data reports that the Liberals lead by 1: LPC 33, CPC 32, NDP 22. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec. Among the 69% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Conservatives have 34% compared with 31% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.

Are the Party’s Holding their Votes?

    The Conservatives are holding 87% of their 2019 vote, the rest has been scattered with no more than 4% going to any other party.
    The Liberals have held 79% of their 2019 vote, losing 12% of that vote to the NDP and 8% to the Conservatives.
  • The NDP has held 83% of its 2019 vote, losing a bit more 7% to the Liberals than to the Conservatives (4%) and the BQ (3%)
  • The Green Party has held on to just 47% of its 2019 vote, losing a third of its voters to the NDP, 10% to the Liberals, and 7% to the Conservatives.
  • Abacus says that in terms of whether people’s views are improving or declining of the three main party leaders, they find Mr. Trudeau has the lowest momentum score while Mr. Singh has the highest.

    Justin Trudeau:
    19% say their impressions are improving, 40% declining, for a momentum score of -21, similar to last week. Among LPC/NDP switchers, his momentum score is +6 and among LPC/CPC switchers it is +15. Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 20% say their impression of Mr. Trudeau has declined since the start of the campaign.

    Erin O’Toole:

    31% say their impressions are improving (up 7), 26% declining, for a momentum score of +5. Among LPC/CPC switchers, his momentum score is +43. Among CPC/NDP switchers, it is +59. Among those who voted CPC in 2019, 5% say their impression of Mr. O’Toole has declined since the start of the campaign.

    Jagmeet Singh:
    36% say their impressions are improving (up 4), 16% declining (unchanged), and 48% not changing for a momentum score of +20. Among LPC/NDP switchers his momentum score is +57 and among CPC/NDP switchers it is +51. Among those who voted NDP in 2019, his momentum score is +55.