Liberal Support Climbs at Expense of New Democrats

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Abacus Poll Results

Abacus Poll Results

THUNDER BAY – The federal Liberals have been gaining in support. It could be the impact of Justin Trudeau’s leadership campaign, or it could be a result of Conservative attack ads on the NDP leader, but NDP support has fallen, and it is going over to the Liberals.

The findings are from a new national survey from the Ottawa-based Abacus Data.

The pollster states, “The Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a seven-point lead over the federal NDP thanks to a rise in Liberal support largely at the expense of the NDP”.

Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters (+1 since September) compared with 29% for the NDP (-6 since September) and 22% for the federal Liberal Party (+5 since September). The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party support was unchanged at 7% and 6% respectively.

This is the first time since the 2011 federal election that the Liberals have been at 22% nationally.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in Alberta (60%) and in Ontario (43%) while the NDP is ahead British Columbia (40%). In Quebec, the NDP is now statistically tied with the BQ (BQ 31% vs. NDP 30%) while the Liberal Party support in Quebec is up to 21%, an 8-points increase since September.

The Conservatives continue to lead among men (38% CPC vs. 30% NDP) and have taken a small lead among women (34% CPC vs. 28% NDP vs. 24% LPC) largely the result of a vote-split among the NDP and Liberals.

Other Tracking Measures

Along with vote intention and top issues, Abacus Data also tracks opinion about the general direction of the country, approval of the federal government, and the favourability of federal party leaders.

  • 51% of Canadians surveyed believed that things in Canada are heading in the right direction while 33% believed things are headed in the wrong track.  This is a significant change since September when 41% of respondents believed the country was headed in the right direction.
    • Ontarians (55% right direction), and those living in the Prairies (63%) and Alberta (63%) were most optimistic about the general direction of the country.
  • Despite a marked shift in the mood of the country, the federal government’s approval rating improved only marginally since September.  This month, 39% approved of the job performance of the federal government compared with 44% who disapproved.
  • Tom Mulcair’s personal ratings weakened slightly since September with 29% of Canadians saying they have a favourable impression of the NDP leader (down 7) while those viewing him unfavourably increased two percentage points.  He remains the only federal leader to have a net positive favourable rating.
  • Prime Minister Harper’s personal numbers remained relatively stable since September.  The percentage of respondents who viewed the Prime Minister unfavourably declined four points to 46% while those viewing him favourably remained stable at 35%.