Lower immigration takes heat off big-city rents as interprovincial moves reshape demand—what it could mean for Northwestern Ontario

THUNDER BAY – BUSINESS NEWS — After years of relentless rent hikes, new data point to a nationwide cooldown driven by slower immigration in early 2025 and surging interprovincial migration that’s redistributing demand across provinces.

While major hubs like Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Edmonton, and Metro Vancouver saw year-over-year declines for unfurnished 1-bedroom units as of October 2025 (down $176, $168, $96, $78, and $58, respectively), pockets of strength remain where Canadians are moving for jobs and affordability.

Thunder Bay has a very hot rental market with even single bedroom apartments running at up to $1400 per month plus. There is a shortage of affordable lower income housing in the city.

Immigration eases—demand cools in major hubs

• Ontario posted the largest drop in newcomers, with 15,279 fewer immigrants in the first half of 2025 versus 2024.

• Most provinces saw declines (except NWT and Nunavut), contributing to softer asking rents.

• Even where the immigration dip was modest (e.g., Quebec), demand eased—suggesting a broad-based cooling.

Movers keep the market balanced in select regions

• Ontario had the biggest net loss to other provinces (-11,474), while Alberta led gains (+12,880).

• Nova Scotia and P.E.I. saw sharp year-over-year growth in in-migration (+66% and +363%, respectively).

• In Edmonton, strength persisted in some segments: furnished 1-bedrooms up 4.9% to $1,526, with two- and three-bedrooms in Southeast Edmonton up $311 and $363 year over year.

Why this matters for Thunder Bay & Northwestern Ontario

• Pressure valve for renters: As big-city asking rents cool, some migration may reverse or slow, easing spillover demand on regional markets—including Thunder Bay.

• Talent attraction window: Employers in healthcare, education, and skilled trades may find it easier to recruit if housing affordability improves relative to larger centres.

• Watch the pipelines: If Alberta and Atlantic Canada continue to attract movers, regional landlords here could face more competitive pricing to keep vacancy low—especially in student and young-professional segments.

Where to go for the numbers

For a city-by-city breakdown and monthly trends, see liv.rent’s Monthly Rent Report and sign up for the 2026 Annual Rent Report (early February), which will track how population flows—and events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup—could influence rental markets next year.

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Immigration slowdown cools big-city rents as interprovincial moves reshape demand across Canada.