Battle River–Crowfoot was the easy part. Closing the gap with the Mark Carney Liberals will take policy, people, and discipline.

THUNDER BAY – POLITICS 2.0 – It was basically a forgone conclusion that the federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would win the Battle River Crowfoot seat and return to Parliament.

Now the Conservative Party leader needs to ramp up several issues. First many are going to want the Conservatives to take a more left leaning stand on many issues, the battle ground that the Mark Carney led Liberals have taken. The Liberals literally moved left politically while talking right on many issues.

The Parliament that Poilievre returns to will be different. There is almost no New Democrat presence as the party was reduced to seven seats, and the Liberals are three seats short of a majority.

The Green Party has one seat, and Party leader Elizabeth May is looking to step down as leader once the party elects a new leader.

The Liberals have posted impressive post election fundraising totals, and are getting ready for another campaign. For the Conservatives, the difficulty in forcing an election will be that the New Democrats and Bloc are not in a position at present to fight a national election campaign.

Where to Go for the Conservatives?

With a thumping by-election win in Battle River–Crowfoot, Pierre Poilievre is back in the House of Commons. The result restores his voice at Question Period—but it doesn’t, on its own, solve the Conservatives’ central problem: how to build a national coalition big enough to beat the Mark Carney Liberals in the next general election.

Below, a practical roadmap—focused on voters the Conservatives need to win back, and what that looks like in Northwestern Ontario.

1) Win the renters’ economy: housing first, not slogans

• Deliverables: A national “Homes First Deal” with provinces/municipalities that trades faster approvals and up-zoning for federal dollars; tie transit funding to housing outcomes; accelerate surplus-land releases; remove GST/HST on purpose-built rentals and modular builds; enable factory-built housing at scale.

• Thunder Bay lens: Funding certainty for infill around existing transit corridors, support for Indigenous-led housing in the region, and a modular pilot that leverages local trades via Confederation College.

2) Own affordability without spiking inflation

• Deliverables: A targeted cost-of-living package (portable child-care expense credit for shift workers, rollover of unused RRSP room for first-time buyers, competition reforms to lower food/telecom costs, and a credible plan to lower payroll drag on small employers).

• Northern reality check: Grocery/fuel logistics north of Highway 17 are different—commit to remote cost-of-living offsets tied to freight and winter-road reliability.

3) A serious climate + energy plan (not a culture war)

• Deliverables: Fast permitting for hydro, nuclear SMRs, grid interties, and critical-minerals projects; a technology-first plan (CCUS, methane cuts, industrial electrification) with transparent targets.

• Ring of Fire test: Pair permitting speed with co-decision and revenue-sharing with Marten Falls and Webequie; lock in Indigenous equity stakes in energy and road corridors.

4) Fix access to care where voters feel it—family medicine

• Deliverables: A five-year bilateral with provinces that funds team-based primary care, rural physician incentives, and fast-track credentials for internationally trained clinicians.

• Northwestern Ontario needs: Stabilize Thunder Bay Regional staffing, expand nurse-practitioner-led clinics in fly-in communities, and fund air-ambulance reliability.

5) Rebalance immigration—and make it work

• Deliverables: Set a clear multi-year plan that calibrates permanent vs. temporary flows to housing and health-care capacity; aggressive foreign-credential recognition timelines; crack down on bad actors in the student/work-permit stream.

• Local impact: Tie student and worker permits to regional housing/placement guarantees with Lakehead University and major employers.

6) Crime, ports, borders: competence over rhetoric

• Deliverables: An auto-theft/port-security package; stronger bail compliance; modernized CBSA tools to target organized crime and firearms trafficking.

• Thunder Bay port: Invest in rail-to-ship security, grain-corridor resilience, and cyber protection for port logistics.

7) Economic growth narrative: productivity you can touch

• Deliverables: A “Build & Ship More” agenda—regulatory clocks, one-project/one-assessment, accelerated depreciation for new machinery, and commercialization bridges from lab to mine/mill.

• Regional wins: Fund Highway 11/17 twinning, all-weather road links that cut medevac and freight costs, and next-gen wildfire adaptation for the forest economy.

8) Broaden the coalition—women under 45, new Canadians, urban/suburban seats

• How: Lead with practical wins (child-care flexibility, safer streets, cheaper wireless bills, faster family-doctor access). Keep the tone constructive; deploy local champions who reflect the communities you’re courting. Discipline matters more than decibels.

The Northern Scorecard: What Voters Here Will Notice

1. Concrete housing starts in Thunder Bay and Indigenous communities—measured quarterly.

2. Progress on Ring of Fire access roads with signed benefit agreements, not press releases.

3. Primary-care appointments within days, not months.

4. Lower grocery logistics costs shown in freight metrics and shelf prices.

5. Real movement on Highway 11/17 and port capacity that protects mining and grain exports.

Risks the Conservatives Must Manage

• Over-promising tax cuts without a believable fiscal anchor.

• Climate credibility gaps that scare swing urban voters.

• Candidate vetting and message discipline—one controversy can erase weeks of affordability messaging.

• Picking the wrong fights online; persuasion beats performative outrage.

Bottom Line

The by-election proves the base is energized. To make up ground on the Carney Liberals, Conservatives need deliverable policy, credible climate and growth plans, and a bigger, calmer coalition—with tangible wins that people in Thunder Bay, Kenora, Sioux Lookout and the 905 can see and feel long before writ day.