How Lewis, Poilievre and May can try to slow Liberal momentum

Thunder Bay – POLITICS – The federal Liberals are no longer just a little ahead in the polls. Right now, they are sitting in what looks like majority territory, and that matters in Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario because the Liberals already hold both local federal seats.

In the 2025 election, Marcus Powlowski won Thunder Bay—Rainy River with 48.5 per cent of the vote, while Patty Hajdu took Thunder Bay—Superior North with 55.2 per cent. Any opposition comeback has to cut into that Ontario strength, not just run up votes elsewhere.

Polls show the Liberals ahead, but not beyond reach

The latest polling all points in the same direction. Abacus Data’s March 29 tracker had the Liberals at 44 per cent among decided voters, the Conservatives at 37, the NDP at nine and the Greens at three. Nanos weekly tracking released March 24 had the Liberals at 45.7 per cent, the Conservatives at 32.9, the NDP at 11.5 and the Greens at 3.7. Ipsos, in polling released earlier this month, had the Liberals at 44, the Conservatives at 36, the NDP at eight and the Greens at three. Liaison Strategies, also in March, had the Liberals at 43 and the Conservatives at 33, with the NDP at nine and the Greens at three.

The broader seat picture is even more striking. 338Canada’s federal model, which is built from polling and other data rather than being a poll itself, now projects 208 Liberal seats, well above the 172 needed for a majority.

The same model projects 105 seats for the Conservatives, six for the NDP and two for the Greens. So the Green Party has not disappeared, but it is operating on the margins of the national race right now.

Why the Liberals have the advantage

The Liberals are benefiting from more than simple incumbency. Abacus says the cost of living remains the top issue for 64 per cent of Canadians, followed by Donald Trump and his administration at 42 per cent, then the economy at 41 per cent.

On those issues, the Liberals are either competitive or ahead: Abacus found them tied with the Conservatives on cost of living, ahead on the economy, healthcare and housing, and far ahead on handling Trump. The Conservatives still lead clearly on immigration and crime, but the issue mix at the moment is helping the government more than hurting it.

What Pierre Poilievre has to do

Pierre Poilievre remains Leader of the Opposition and leader of the Conservative party, but the polling suggests his path back runs through broadening his appeal, not just sharpening his attacks. Ipsos found the Conservatives strongest in Alberta and among men, while the Liberals still led in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

For Poilievre, that means the challenge is no longer simply motivating his base. It is persuading softer Ontario voters that he has a steady governing answer on affordability, trade, health care and economic uncertainty, especially with Canada-U.S. tensions still prominent in the public mind. In Northwestern Ontario, that would mean a more practical pitch on resource jobs, border trade, highways, rail links and access to doctors rather than a campaign built mostly on outrage.

What Avi Lewis has to do

Avi Lewis starts from a different problem: visibility and relevance. He was elected NDP leader Sunday with 56 per cent of the vote on the first ballot, and his leadership campaign was built around worker power, public ownership, climate justice and an economy that serves “the many, not the money.”

That gives him a clear ideological identity, but clarity alone will not rebuild the party. The NDP is still polling in single digits to low double digits nationally, and it was reduced to just 6.8 per cent in Thunder Bay—Rainy River and 7.1 per cent in Thunder Bay—Superior North in the last federal election.

For Lewis to chip away at the Liberals, he has to turn a movement message into a pocketbook one: wages, rent, housing supply, health-care access and a northern economic plan that does not sound hostile to paycheques tied to mining, forestry, transportation and energy.

Lewis also has to solve a strategic problem the NDP has faced for years: too many centre-left voters like the party’s values but vote Liberal when they think the stakes are high. Abacus’s latest numbers show the Liberals leading or competing strongly on healthcare, housing, inequality, climate change and even the economy. That means Lewis cannot just argue that New Democrats care more. He has to convince voters the NDP would be more effective, more practical and more relevant to daily life in places far from downtown Toronto or Vancouver.

What Elizabeth May has to do

Elizabeth May remains the Green leader, but her party’s immediate task is survival before expansion.

The Greens are at three per cent in the latest Abacus and Ipsos polling, 3.7 per cent in Nanos, and just two seats in the current 338Canada projection. In the two Thunder Bay ridings in 2025, Green candidates took less than one per cent. That is not a base for a national breakthrough.

For May, the most realistic strategy is to stop trying to sound like a smaller version of the NDP or Liberals and instead make the Greens the party of practical climate resilience, local democracy and community-level accountability.

In Northwestern Ontario, that could mean a sharper focus on wildfire preparedness, flood protection, clean water, energy security and the cost of climate damage to roads, homes and remote communities.

What this means for Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario

For NetNewsLedger readers, the local test is straightforward.

The opposition parties do not need to win every argument nationally to hurt the Liberals, but they do need to matter again in Ontario and in places like Thunder Bay, where federal politics is often judged through cost of living, health care, Indigenous relationships, housing shortages, resource development and the cross-border economy.

Poilievre’s opening is competence on costs and growth.

Lewis’s opening is a sharper working-class argument on services and affordability.

May’s opening is to connect climate to everyday northern reality instead of abstract national branding. Until one of them starts doing that more convincingly, the Liberals remain the party best positioned to turn a polling lead into a majority.