Thunder Bay Weather Focus: Icy Tuesday Morning, then Snowy and Cold Late Week
THUNDER BAY – WEATHER DESK – Thunder Bay is closing out Monday under mainly clear skies, but the weather story is far from over.
An Alberta clipper is lining up to bring patchy ice pellets and freezing drizzle late tonight into Tuesday morning, setting the stage for slick roads, icy sidewalks, and tricky travel across the city.
Now as we have reported recently it is also possible that this Clipper may miss the city.
As of 7:00 PM EST, conditions at Thunder Bay Airport were mainly clear with a temperature of –12.7°C (we’ll call it –13°C). A light west wind at 8 km/h is driving the wind chill down to about –18°C, reminding everyone that the deep cold is still very much here. The humidity sits at 83 percent with a dew point of –15.0°C, while visibility is a clear 24 kilometres under the evening sky. The barometric pressure is 101.8 kPa and rising, showing a temporary calm before the next round of active weather arrives overnight.
For mid-December, Thunder Bay typically sees daytime highs in the minus single digits and minus teens, with colder nights in the minus teens and twenties. While exact historic record highs and lows for December 15 aren’t included in this report, today’s temperatures and wind chills are right in line with a standard December evening along the north shore of Lake Superior – just with a bit more ice hazard than usual in the forecast.
Icy Hazards Late Tonight into Tuesday Morning
Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting the risk of patchy ice pellets and freezing drizzle from late tonight into Tuesday morning. An Alberta clipper tracking across the region will introduce a layer of warmer air aloft over the cold surface, a classic recipe for light icing.
The concern is not heavy precipitation, but light ice accretion – just enough to create hazardous, very slippery conditions on roads, walkways, steps, and parking lots. Even a thin glaze can turn a routine drive or walk into a challenge, especially for early commuters, school buses, and anyone heading to work before sunrise.
Tonight, skies will be mainly cloudy with about a 40 percent chance of flurries overnight and a risk of freezing drizzle before morning. Winds will be light, up to 15 km/h, and the low is expected to drop to around –16°C. The wind chill will sit near –13°C this evening and around –20°C overnight, which is cold enough that any moisture on surfaces will have no trouble freezing solid.
If you’re out late tonight or early Tuesday, plan for icy patches on bridges, intersections, hills, and less-travelled side streets, as well as on sidewalks and driveways that haven’t been treated.
Tuesday: Ice Pellets, Possible Freezing Rain, Then a Mild Bump
On Tuesday, Thunder Bay will see mainly cloudy skies with a 60 percent chance of ice pellets in the morning and a risk of freezing rain. As the Alberta clipper moves through, temperatures will climb and the wind will shift, with southwest winds increasing to about 20 km/h in the morning.
The high is forecast to reach around +3°C, a noticeable jump from tonight’s deep cold. The wind chill in the morning will still feel close to –13°C, but by afternoon, air temperatures will be above freezing. That warm-up will help melt some of the ice, but as ice pellets and possible freezing rain mix with the milder air, slush, ruts, and big puddles can develop – all of which will refreeze later when temperatures drop again.
Tuesday night, a few rain showers will change to flurries near midnight as colder air returns. Winds will shift to northwest 40 km/h gusting to 70 km/h, then ease back to a west wind near 20 km/h before morning. The low will fall to about –12°C, with a wind chill near –16°C overnight, meaning any water on surfaces will refreeze into new ice patches by Wednesday morning.
Mid to Late Week: Brief Calm, Then Snow and a Deep Freeze
On Wednesday, Thunder Bay gets a weather breather: a mix of sun and cloud and a high near –4°C. It will feel more like a normal cold winter’s day, and the sunshine will be a welcome break after the slippery Tuesday mix.
Wednesday night, however, brings periods of snow and a low near –5°C, ushering in the next round of accumulating snow.
On Thursday, the city can expect periods of snow, local blowing snow and windy conditions, with a high around –7°C. Gusty winds will blow freshly fallen snow around, reducing visibility at times and creating drifting along exposed stretches of road.
By Thursday night, skies turn to cloudy periods with a 40 percent chance of flurries, and the temperature plunges to a low near –24°C. That’s a harsh turn back to deep winter cold, with wind chills likely pushing into the –20s and bringing a renewed risk of frostbite.
Friday keeps things wintry, with a 30 percent chance of flurries and a high near –10°C, followed by periods of snow Friday night and a low around –9°C. Saturday holds a 40 percent chance of flurries and a high near –10°C, then clear skies Saturday night with a low near –18°C. Sunday offers a mix of sun and cloud and a high around –11°C, closing out the week with calmer but still cold conditions.
Wardrobe and Travel Tips for Thunder Bay
With wind chills in the –20 range overnight and icy precipitation in the forecast, this is a time for full winter gear and cautious travel. A thermal or fleece base layer, a warm mid-layer, and a good insulated winter jacket are your best defence against the cold, especially if you’re waiting for a bus or walking to school or work early Tuesday.
On your legs, lined pants or snow pants will keep the chill at bay, particularly in the morning. Insulated winter boots with good tread are important, not just for warmth, but for traction on icy sidewalks and parking lots. A toque, warm mitts, and a neck warmer or scarf that you can pull over your mouth and nose will help fight off both the wind chill and the damp feel of freezing drizzle or wet snow.
If you’re driving, allow extra time for your commute late tonight and Tuesday morning. Clear all snow and ice from your vehicle, keep a safe following distance, and be especially careful at intersections, ramps, and bridges, where ice can form more quickly.
Thunder Bay Weather Trivia – When Clipper Systems Bring Icy Surprises
Alberta clippers are known for their fast movement and sharp temperature contrasts, often racing in with a quick burst of snow, ice pellets or freezing drizzle, followed by a temporary warm-up and then a return to cold air.
Thunder Bay sits in a prime spot to feel those swings: one day it’s clear and –13°C with a wind chill of –18, and the next it’s flirting with +3°C, ice pellets, and rain, before sliding back into snow and deep cold. It’s part of what makes weather on the north shore of Lake Superior so challenging to navigate — and why keeping an eye on those special weather statements is always a smart move.
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