What has changed, what still needs fixing, and why it matters in Northwestern Ontario

Thunder Bay – SPORTS – As September advances, many look forward the NHL Hockey season. Across Northwestern Ontario, the legion of fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs is legend. Sadly however since 1967, the Leafs and their fans have been in a long Cup drought.

Looking at the 2025-2026 season, hope runs eternal that this will be the year.

Will it?

Key takeaways (for the scroll-happy)

• The core is different: Mitch Marner is out; two-way centre Nicolas Roy, playmaker Matias Maccelli, and sandpaper forward Dakota Joshua are in. The blue line adds Brandon Carlo to Morgan Rielly–Chris Tanev–Oliver Ekman-Larsson–Jake McCabe–Timothy Liljegren. nhl.com

• Berube-ball took them to Game 7 of Round 2 last spring—then Florida hammered them 6–1. The lesson: more grind, more goals inside the dots—especially when the whistles disappear. ESPN.com

• Special teams and the slot game are the swing factors. The Leafs’ 24.8% PP / 77.9% PK in 2024–25 were good-but-not-great; without Marner’s half-wall wizardry, the PP must be re-imagined.

What’s actually different about this Leafs team

1) A re-shaped forward group built for Berube’s forecheck

• Out: Mitch Marner. In: Nicolas Roy (6’4” C, Cup ring), Matias Maccelli (entry-zone artist), Dakota Joshua(heavy, north-south). This tilts Toronto toward size, board-winning, and middle-lane drives. nhl.com

• Depth adds: Steven Lorentz re-ups; Michael Pezzetta, Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Travis Boyd sign short deals to juice the bottom six and PK competition. Matthew Knies secured long-term.

• Core pillars unchanged: Auston Matthews (through 2027–28) and William Nylander (through 2031–32). John Tavares remains a key net-front/pivot presence.

Why it matters in April: Roy/Joshua/Laughton-type pieces tend to keep cycles alive and draw kills; Maccelli can be the zone-entry valve Toronto has lacked when opponents sit on Matthews’ rush. nhl.com

2) A blue line that finally looks playoff-proof

• Toronto signed Chris Tanev (6×$4.5M) and OEL (4×$3.5M) last summer, extended Jake McCabe, and traded for Brandon Carlo at the 2025 deadline. That’s three steady right-shots/top-four-caliber defenders (Tanev, Carlo, Liljegren) and improved defensive length.

• A plausible six on opening night:
  Rielly–Tanev | Ekman-Larsson–Carlo | McCabe–Liljegren; Simon Benoit as the 7D. (Depth charts from multiple outlets put these names in Toronto’s top eight.)

• The net: strong tandem, health caveat

• Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz are the tandem. Stolarz earned playoff starts before a head injury in Round 2; Woll carried Game 6 and faced the Game 7 deluge. If both stay healthy, Toronto has a credible 1A/1B.

Why 2025–26 can be the window—and what still blocks it

The path is clearer—but still rugged

• Toronto pushed to Game 7 vs. Florida last spring—Berube’s hard-forecheck identity clearly translated—then collapsed 6–1 at home. The Atlantic still runs through Florida and Tampa, with Boston retooling after dealing Carlo and others. Toronto must bank points early to avoid a gauntlet matchup.

Five things Toronto must nail to become a Cup team

1. Rebuild the power play without Marner.
   Use Matthews’ one-timer threat as gravity, let Nylander drive entries, and test OEL/Rielly as PP quarterbacks in different looks. Consider a net-front triangle of Tavares–Roy with Knies in the bumper to force interior seams. Last season’s 24.8% PP was good; the postseason dipped to ~21.6%—that can’t happen again.

2. Win the middle and the slot.
   In the 2025 playoffs, Toronto posted the lowest xGF/60 of all teams—too much perimeter, not enough inside-lane touches. Joshua/Laughton/Roy should be stapled to lines to generate blue-paint offense and second chances.

3. Lean into the new matchup spine.
   A Roy-centred line can take defensive zone starts and top-six matchups, freeing Matthews’ line to tilt ice. Laughton’s FO/PK minutes have to lower the stress on Matthews/Nylander late in games.

4. Keep the Penalty Killing above water.
   The 77.9% PK was 17th last season. With Tanev/Carlo/Liljegren and forwards like Laughton/Roy/Joshua, this unit should live north of 82%—the bar for true contenders.

5. Preserve goalie health and usage.
   Stolarz’s Round-2 injury forced musical chairs. Manage the back-to-backs; protect Woll’s workload into April so he’s peaking, not patching.

What a winning Leafs formula looks like (lineup logic)

A plausible forward mix (by role, not exact lines):

• Scoring tilt: Knies – Matthews – Nylander

• Playmaking/possession: Maccelli – Tavares – Domi

• Matchup/PK engine: Joshua – Roy – Laughton

• Energy/forecheck: Pezzetta – Lorentz – Boyd (and call-ups rotating)
  This configuration fits Berube’s “heavy to light” build and keeps a defensive wall in front of leads.

Defense pairs already noted provide two right-shot stoppers (Tanev/Carlo) and two puck movers (Rielly/OEL), with McCabe/Liljegren flexible by opponent.

Of course this is all – at least right now – just speculation. Its a long season, and the puck bounces are unpredictable.

Bottom line: Are the 2025–26 Leafs Cup-calibre?

Yes—conditionally. The roster is sturdier, heavier, and better aligned to Berube’s identity. If they (a) keep the PP top-5without Marner, (b) lift the PK to ~82%, and (c) arrive in April with healthy Woll/Stolarz and a clear matchup line, Toronto has a real path out of the Atlantic. The Game-7 scar from May should be a feature, not a bug, in their mindset.

Anything short of an Eastern Final will feel like a miss.