Thunder Bay – If you keep an eye on the realty signs, properties in Thunder Bay do not seem to sit on the market for long.
In good areas of the city homes can sell very quickly. That trend is not being seen across Canada as there is a lot of market variety.
Canada’s real estate landscape continues to fracture along urban-rural lines, as the latest Price per Square Foot (PPSF) survey by Century 21 Canada reveals steep price declines in major markets like Toronto and Vancouver, while smaller communities across Atlantic Canada and the Prairies have seen sharp increases.
For Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario, these trends offer both caution and opportunity. While the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has been hit by falling condo and detached home prices—Hamilton homes dropped a staggering 24%—communities like Fredericton, Red Deer, and Brandon are experiencing significant price hikes, indicating a shifting national appetite for affordability and quality of life.
Metro Markets Down as Economic Woes Mount
The survey, analyzing sales from January to June 2025 across nearly 50 Canadian communities, found major city condos especially vulnerable. Downtown Toronto condos dropped to their lowest price per square foot since 2018, while Burnaby and Victoria saw 12–13% declines in detached and townhouse prices respectively.
Economic uncertainty—especially linked to U.S. tariff policies—has prompted many would-be buyers to adopt a “wait and see” stance, with sales volumes slowing in most major centres. That trend could resonate in Thunder Bay, where higher borrowing costs and national caution may affect local market psychology even if fundamentals remain stable.
Smaller Cities Surge Ahead
In contrast, markets like Fredericton, St. John, Brandon, and Red Deer recorded double-digit price growth, continuing a pandemic-era migration trend toward smaller, more affordable communities.
This dynamic may offer insight for Thunder Bay. With a median home price still well below southern Ontario and Western Canada, the city could be poised to attract both downsizers and remote workers looking for stability and space—especially if national buyers begin to re-examine mid-sized and northern urban centres as investment opportunities.
Ontario’s Mixed Picture: GTA Down, Ottawa Rises
Ontario saw the sharpest disparities. Toronto condo prices dipped nearly 12%, and Markham’s detached homes fell 22%. Yet Ottawa defied the trend with a 22% increase in detached home values, making it a regional standout.
Nelson Goulart of CENTURY 21 Signature Service attributes the hesitation to interest rate concerns and broader uncertainty: “Once that uncertainty lifts, that’s when they’ll jump in.”
Thunder Bay, buffered by less volatile price swings and not dependent on speculative investment like some southern Ontario markets, could see a more stable environment going forward. However, national cooling could affect interprovincial migration rates, slowing demand from southern buyers.
What It Means for Thunder Bay
With Thunder Bay offering affordable housing, a strong quality of life, and increasing regional migration, it could see renewed interest as national buyers pivot toward value.
However, much depends on economic stabilization and how quickly confidence returns to the national market.
The city’s relative insulation from steep price shocks may also support local first-time buyers who’ve been priced out elsewhere.
If trends in smaller cities continue, Thunder Bay may find itself in a stronger competitive position for attracting new residents and investors in 2026 and beyond.
