Trudeau Cautions Liberal MPs: No Quick Rebound in Polls Expected

Justin Trudeau - Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada
Justin Trudeau - Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada

Staying the Course Amidst Challenges

THUNDER BAY – Analysis – In a candid moment during the Liberal party’s national caucus meeting in Ottawa last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tempered expectations regarding the party’s short-term performance in public opinion polls.

Addressing MPs the day after the federal budget was released, Trudeau urged patience and calm amidst political turbulence. With the Liberals lagging by twenty points in the polls, and the Prime Minister’s personal popularity sagging, keeping the caucus focused and telling them it will only get better is good political strategy for the Prime Minister.

A Strategic Approach to Public Perception

Sources from the meeting reveal that Trudeau’s message was clear: significant shifts in poll standings are unlikely within the coming months. “Don’t expect us to be neck and neck in two months’ time or six months’ time, even,” relayed one MP, illustrating the Prime Minister’s strategy to manage expectations internally within the party. Trudeau’s metaphor of “treading water when you’re drowning” was aimed at encouraging MPs to remain composed and persistent despite potential dips in popularity, focusing on long-term goals rather than immediate public opinion battles.

The federal Conservatives have honed in their messaging and are broadening their target. Pierre Poilievre has shifted his question period tactics. The fact that the question is never answered, has the Conservative leader literally using the time to take his message directly to the viewers and asking them as he did recently to “Google it”.


The Social Media Battle Ground

One of the serious contrasts between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre is in social media usage. Conservative leader Pierre Poilierve has taken a massive lead in on social media.

On Youtube, Pierre Poilevre has 398,000 subscribers. His Youtube page has been up since 2011 and has had 109,377,247 views of posted videos.

Justin Trudeau started his Youtube channel 10 months ago, and has 4640 subscribers.

Jagmeet Singh the New Democrat leader has 5860 subscribers on his Youtube channel which was started five years ago.

What does this mean?

In this video from the Conservative leader which was published on February 3, 2024 has over 140,000 views.

By way of contrast, the latest video from the Prime Minister published 9 days ago has garnered 5000 views.

This is a massive advantage for the Conservatives who are able to reach supporters, and interested Canadians who are able to access social media and Youtube in the privacy of their homes, and offices.

The Conservatives are able to reach directly to Canadians via social media and bypass main stream media. In fact the Conservatives have started posting videos directly showcasing questions from reporters that are gaining major views.

This social media deficit has left the Liberals behind the Conservatives. The mastery on Youtube by the Conservatives gives them very inexpensive and instant access to large numbers of supporters as well as undecided voters.

The Fund Raising Facts

In 2023, the Conservative Party set a record for fundraising

The Conservative Party of Canada set a new benchmark in its fundraising efforts, according to the latest data from Elections Canada. The party’s financial records for the fourth quarter of the previous year show an impressive collection of more than $11.9 million from approximately 66,000 donors.

2023 has emerged as a standout year in the history of the Conservative Party’s fundraising activities. Since its inception two decades ago, the party has not witnessed a year quite as financially successful as 2023.

Over the course of the year, the party managed to amass more than $35 million in donations, with contributions coming from around 200,000 donors.

While the federal Liberals are behind in the polls, what is more important right now is that the Liberals are way behind in what often is the really vital statistic in politics, and that is raising money.

In 2023, the Justin Trudeau and the Liberals raised a total of $15.6 million, according to Elections Canada’s financial returns.

The Liberal Party of Canada demonstrated consistency in the latest financial reports, as released by Elections Canada. In the fourth quarter of the year, the Liberals raised approximately $5.8 million in donations from 38,288 contributors.

This figure represents less than half of what the Conservative Party amassed during the same period.

Consistency in Contributions For the Liberals

A closer look at the data could present a bit of a silver lining for the Liberal Party. The amount raised in the last quarter of the year mirrors the fundraising performance of the previous year, 2022, showcasing a steady flow of financial support. Additionally, the number of donors remained remarkably consistent, with 38,288 contributors in the latest report compared to 38,416 in the prior year.

Yearly Fundraising Growth of $600,000 for Liberals in 2023

Throughout 2023, the Liberals witnessed a slight uptick in their fundraising efforts, collecting a total of approximately $15.6 million in donations. This represents a growth from the $15 million total haul of the previous year, marking a positive trend in the party’s financial health and donor engagement.

Analysis: What This Means for Thunder Bay

The Prime Minister’s message might resonate differently in Thunder Bay, where federal actions and policies often have direct local impacts. For residents and local leaders, understanding this approach can offer insights into the federal government’s pacing and priorities, possibly affecting funding timelines and policy initiatives in regions like Northwestern Ontario.

Thunder Bay Rainy River MP Marcus Powlowski appears to be taking an approach right now his advertising is stating “Outspoken” and “Fighting for You”.

Powlowski may be showing a trend other Liberal MPs are likely to employ in coming months of showcasing themselves and downplaying the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party. It is an approach often used when the party and leader are down in the polls.

It is an approach that Thunder Bay Superior North MP and cabinet minister Patty Hajdu as a key member of Justin Trudeau’s inner circle isn’t likely to attempt.

Only time will tell.

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