Ontario Modelling Shows Potential for Massive COVID-19 Spikes


Key Findings

  • Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.
  • Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.
  • COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
  • Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.
  • A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.
  • Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.

TORONTO – On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that the modelling he was seeing was going to have people, “Falling out of their chairs”.

Health officials say the the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in Ontario could double from 50 to 100 between now and the end of February.
The new variant of the virus could see total case numbers spike to 12,000 a day. The figures show that more than 2,600 more long-term care residents could die by the middle of February.
They show that by February, the Ontario health care system could be totally overwhelmed.
The modelling shows that one third of Ontario resident are ignoring the health recommendations.

Dr. Brown says, we are at a dangerous time. “We are now on a pace to exceed the death rate of the first wave.”

“The pandemic will have serious consequences for our province”.

“Hallways are being used for ICU, and field hospitals will be needed”.

The choices that healthcare professionals in terms of care is going to be seriously impacted as care is delayed as COVID-19 continues to grow.

The impact of COVID-19 and the new variant from the United Kingdom is seeing a doubling of the rate, but the new variant is causing a doubling every ten days.

It is the actions of those in Ontario who are NOT FOLLOWING the restrictions who are causing the spike says Dr. Brown.

That information was released this morning. It shows a massive spike in cases of COVID-19 in Ontario’s Long-Term Care Homes.

It shows that while the majority of people are following the lockdown rules, things won’t likely improve until more people are following them.

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