THUNDER BAY – BUSINESS – Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 141 units in March down from 204 units in February according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
“The housing starts trend in Thunder Bay turned down in January. The three consecutive monthly declines reversed the strengthening trend witnessed in the final eight months of 2014. The stronger trend in the second half of 2014 was primarily due to the long winter that gave way to housing construction getting a late start and then being bunched in the second half of the year. No starts in March 2015 helped further moderate the trend, although a low March starts figure is not uncommon. Meanwhile, the resale market did show some signs of life in March which is a positive early indicator that demand for new homes will strengthen,” commented Warren Philp, CMHC Market Analyst.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 25 units in March up slightly from 21 units in February.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables