Over half of Canadians expect federal Conservatives will lose next election – Forum Research


Parliament HillTHUNDER BAY – Forum Research reports, “In a measure of perception rather than voting intention, more than one half of Canadians expect the current government to be defeated in the next election (53%), while one third expect it to be re-elected (34%). While this is very similar to levels of Conservative support, it should be noted that just 8-in-10 Conservative voters expect their party to be re-elected (79%), while one tenth do not expect this to happen (11%).

In an exact reversal of opinion, 8-in-10 NDP supporters do not think the government will be re-elected (79%), and one tenth think it will be (11%).

Albertans were more likely to expect the government to be re-elected than residents of other provinces (54%; compared to 41% Manitoba / Saskatchewan, 39% Ontario, 28% British Columbia, 24% Atlantic, 22% Quebec).

In a sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among Canadians 18 years of age and older, close to 4-in-10 would vote for the NDP if an election were held today (37%), a clear lead over the second place Conservatives, who are favoured by 3-in-10 (30%).

Fewer than one quarter of Canadians would vote Liberal (22%), while about one twentieth would support either the Bloc Quebecois (6%) or the Green Party (5%).

The Conservatives had the highest support among older Canadians (26% <34, 24% 35 to 44, 32% 45 to 54, 29% 55 to 64, and 35% 65+),and Albertans (60%; compared to 34% Ontario, 33% Manitoba / Saskatchewan, 30% British Columbia, 28% Atlantic, 15% Quebec). Half of those with household incomes less than $20K (48%) preferred the NDP.