Conservatives Maintain Lead in Latest Poll


Canada FlagTHUNDER BAY – The federal political scene remains one with the Conservatives atop the polls. The latest Globe/CTV/Nanos tracking poll on the federal political scene shows that the Conservatives continue to enjoy their ballot box advantage, the Liberals are up slightly and the NDP are down. The latest national ballot stands at 39.0% for the Tories, 29.0% for the NDP, 24.5% for the Liberals and 2.9% for the Greens (support for the Bloc gained slightly, at 3.5% nationally and 14.4% in Quebec).

Harper retains a double-digit advantage over the other federal party leaders on trust, vision and competence. Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae has gained a slight edge over interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel on competence (14.2% of Canadians for Rae, 9.2% for Turmel), while the two are statistically tied on trust and vision for Canada.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=939).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=968 committed voters)
Conservative 39.0% (-0.5)
NDP 29.0% (-4.1)
Liberal 24.5% (+3.8)
Bloc Quebecois 3.5% (+0.9)
Green 2.9% (-0.5)
*Undecided 19.9% (-2.5)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=1,015).

Jobs/economy 31.9% (+5.6)
Healthcare 28.2% (-2.6)
Education 8.0% (+1.3)
The environment 5.3% (-0.1)
High taxes 3.7% (-1.3)
Unsure 5.5% (-2.6%)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,209)

Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 114.2
Bob Rae 39.1
Nycole Turmel 34.5
Elizabeth May 12.5

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,209)
Stephen Harper 36.5%
None: 17.1%
Unsure: 16.4%
Bob Rae 12.9%
Nycole Turmel 11.9%
Elizabeth May 5.1%

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,209)
Stephen Harper 40.9%
Unsure: 18.3%
None: 14.3%
Bob Rae 14.2%
Nycole Turmel 9.2%
Elizabeth May 3.1%

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,209)
Stephen Harper 36.8%
Unsure: 19.0%
None: 14.5%
Nycole Turmel 13.4%
Bob Rae 12.0%
Elizabeth May 4.3%

More Canadians are seeing jobs and the economy as their most important national issue of concern, surpassing healthcare for the first time since (jobs/economy number one issue 31.9%, healthcare 28.2%).

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